Casper Ruud vs. Francisco Cerúndolo: Where to Watch, Madrid Preview, Betting Odds

Ruud and Cerúndolo are familiar foes, even in Masters 1000 semifinals. The rivals first met in the penultimate round of the 2022 Miami Open, with Ruud winning to make what was hitherto his biggest career final.

Both men have had ups and downs in the three years since, Ruud making three major finals but struggling with inconsistency since falling out of the Top 10 at the end of 2023, and Cerúndolo on the precipice of a new career-high ranking after ending 2024 ranked just outside the Top 20.

The Argentine has also gotten the better of Ruud in their rivalry, taking a 5-3 head-to-head edge into their semifinal at the Caja Magica. The’ve split their four meetings on clay, with Ruud winning their most recent clay-court clash at the Summer Olympic Games in Paris.

A former world No. 2, Ruud is yet to win a Masters title but looks to have his best chance yet after scoring comprehensive wins over Americans Sebastian Korda and Taylor Fritz. A confident victory over Daniil Medvedev put him in the final four, while Cerúndolo had to battle back from the brink against Miami Open champion Jakub Mensik. The combination of momentum, experience, and freshness should favor the Norwegian. Winner: Ruud—David Kane

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Win Probability C. Ruud

54.3%

Betting Odds

Ruud is a -125 moneyline favorite; Cerúndolo is a -102 underdog.

(Odds from BetMGM as of 3:02 p.m. ET on Thurday, May 1)

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