We’re in full swing now. This is one of my favorite moments of the season, even if it might not be the players’. It isn’t just that we’re flying straight from one major men’s and women’s event to another, it’s that the specter of Roland Garros, and a little farther off in the distance, Centre Court, looms over every match. There are, at once, results to compute, matches to appreciate, and implications to consider. Maybe it’s the august locales—Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome, Paris—or maybe it’s just the anticipation of two Grand Slams coming up fast, but this time of year always seems much more suspenseful than the North American summer build-up to the U.S. Open.
So, anyway, savor the moment. We’ve got change and drama on the men’s side, and opportunity on the women’s. Having been derelict in covering the WTA last week, and the breakthrough win by a player with genuine Slam-winning potential, Petra Kvitova, I’ll start with the women. Kvitova isn’t in Rome, but it’s a good draw nonetheless, and the first time in many years the two tours will be gathering at the Foro Italico at the same time.
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The Women
First Quarter
Now we’ll see whether Caroline Wozniacki has been smart with her scheduling. She’s already played a ton of tennis this year, and we’re only just getting to the most arduous moments of the season. She’s also been beaten by Julia Goerges, previously not one of her major rivals, two weeks in a row. Goerges’ will to aggression in those matches may be the new template for beating Wozniacki, or it may be that clay will require more baseline power than the Dane can muster. Either way, she could use a win in Rome.
Will she get it? Wozniacki is in a moderately dangerous quarter, with Jelena Jankovic, a solid clay-courter, and Ana Ivanovic, a former French Open champ turned totally unpredictable wild card. Also here are Marion Bartoli, Yanina Wickmayer, Nadia Petrova and Lucie Safarova. On paper, Jankovic has the best shot at extending Wozniacki’s small slide.
Semifinalist: Jankovic
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Second Quarter
Victoria Azarenka was beaten by a better player, Kvitova, in the Madrid final, but that shouldn’t, in theory, trip her up on the way to Roland Garros. She has still played the best overall tennis of anyone, on both hard courts and clay, for the last six weeks, and she kept her head during a couple of close matches in Spain. Her quarter includes Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Maria Sharapova, most prominently. Each can overpower anyone, and each is dangerous on a given day, but there’s no reason to think Azarenka can’t handle them right now. Like her fellow Key Biscayne winner and French Open favorite, Vika has been playing with calm.
Semifinalist: Azarenka
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Third Quarter
Li Na showed her first sign of life in a while last week in Madrid, where she reached the semifinals. What does that mean for this week? Hard to say, of course, but her draw looks good. On the other side is Agnieszka Radwanska, competent, stylish, but not intimidating. Closer to her is hometown favorite Flavia Pennetta, winner of the Fed Cup on these courts a few years ago. Again, though, the first question to ask of this section is: What happened to Svetlana Kuznetsova? She’s already lost another first-rounder, this time to Greta Arn, 11-9 in a third-set tiebreaker.
Semifinalist: Radwanska
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Fourth Quarter
Francesca Schiavone is the No. 2 seed, which seems a little inflated based on her 2011 results. But she’s at home, she’s on clay, and the highest seed near her is Kaia Kanepi. The other side of this quarter features a potentially interesting third-rounder between Andrea Petkovic and Sam Stosur, two players see-sawing between struggle and success. If Stosur and Schiavone go far enough, we’ll see a rematch of last year’s Roland Garros final in the quarters. This is their last chance to get themselves in position to make a return run there.
Semifinalist: Schiavone
Semifinals: Azarenka d. Jankovic; Schiavone d. Radwanska
Final: Azarenka d. Schiavone
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The Men
First Quarter
The man who couldn’t be beaten on clay has been beaten. There’s doubt in his head about his ability to beat Novak Djokovic, even on this surface. Will that doubt spread to other players as well, will it affect his overall confidence? Or will it spark Nadal, clear away any nerves he might have had about going undefeated and allow him to go out and fight more freely here and in Paris? Four years ago, Nadal lost to Federer in Hamburg, then came back to beat him in Paris. Two years ago, he lost to Federer in Madrid, then lost in the fourth round at Roland Garros to Soderling (his last loss on clay before yesterday). So, we’ll see. This time, though, and for the first time, it feels as if someone—Djokovic—is actually better than Nadal on clay.
Nadal has no time to wallow or waver. He might have to face Madrid semifinalist Thomaz Bellucci in his first match. Also in his quarter is David Ferrer, who he has beaten in straight sets in two finals this spring.
Semifinalist: Nadal
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Second Quarter
Roger Federer—remember him? It might not seem like it at the moment, but he’s part of the picture, too, having just played what I thought was one of his best matches against Nadal on clay. He was essentially a botched second-serve return away from leveling the match in the third set. Federer has been getting better on the stuff with each match, and there must be some incentive for him in Rome, it being one of the few events he’s never won.
Like Nadal, he’ll have to come out on his toes—Federer will get the winner of Baghdatis and Tsonga, two guys who have beaten him. After that, there’s the theoretically dangerous Richard Gasquet and possibly Tomas Berdych, who seems due for a decent result, if he can get past a tough first-rounder against Juan Monaco.
Semifinalist: Federer
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Third Quarter
Andy Murray, where does he stand in all of this? The Aussie Open finalist suddenly seems diminished, out of the conversation at the moment, treading water. But as he showed with his performance against Nadal in Monte Carlo, despite his penchant for emotional self-sabotage and rampant pessimism, he’s a threat on a given day on clay, and he has a good draw here.
With him are Jurgen Melzer, Gilles Simon, who beat Andy Roddick today (a lot of tough early-round draws in this tournament), Nikolay Davydenko, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and, in Murray's first match, Xavier Malisse, still a fine ball-striker.
But I’ll take a dark horse, Davydenko, even if by the time you read this he might have lost to Viktor Troicki in his first match. Davydenko won in Munich two weeks ago and almost beat Nadal here a few years ago.
Semifinalist: Davydenko
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Fourth Quarter
Would it be better for Djokovic to lose a match before he heads for Paris? To get the pressure of the streak off before he faces the pressure of a Slam? Nadal thrived when he lost pre-Paris in 2007 and 2008, but he also thrived when he didn’t lose last year. Djokovic isn’t Nadal yet; better to keep the front of invincibility going as long as he can.
That shouldn’t be a problem, considering the way he’s playing. But while he looked invincible against Nadal in Madrid, remember that he was almost beaten in the previous round by Bellucci. It can happen against anyone, and a certified streak-breaker, Robin Soderling, may await Djokovic in the quarters. But I can’t pick against Djokovic on paper right now.
Semifinalist: Djokovic
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Semifinals: Nadal d. Federer; Djokovic d. Davydenko
Final: Djokovic d. Nadal