Cincinnati Open preview: Alcaraz, Sabalenka and Sinner return, and other top stories

“A Thursday final? Did I miss the meeting?”

That’s what a tennis-fan friend emailed me this week. He, like many people it seems, wasn’t aware that this year’s Canadian Masters 1000s were ending on a Thursday, rather than the traditional Sunday. And why would he be? There’s no precedent for it in tennis that I know of.

It’s all part of what we might call the summer of experimental scheduling. The 1000s in Canada and Cincy have been expanded, but at the same time they’ve been forced to share three weeks of the calendar. That has led to Cincy’s main draw starting before Canada has ended, the Canadian events ending on a Thursday night, and Cincy ending on a Monday night. From a TV viewership perspective, it feels strange and not ideal. We’ll see what the numbers are

For now, we have Cincy ramping up before Canada has had time to close down. Before the tournament gets too far along, here are four takeaways from the draws, and one question about the courts.

When it comes to surfaces, how fast is too fast?

We’ve heard the nostalgic laments for years: When hard courts and grass courts were faster back in the 20th century, aggressive tennis was rewarded and the game was more exciting. Having lived through some of the last century, I was always a bit skeptical of that particular trip down memory lane. As great as Pete Sampras was in the fast-court era, Roger Federer was more entertaining, whatever surface he was playing on.

Hard-court tournaments have heard the complaints and tried to do something about it. Miami and Cincinnati upped their speeds in recent years, and Toronto followed suit in 2025. The results haven’t necessarily led to more fan-friendly tennis. Last year in Cincy, Carlos Alcaraz was blown out of the water early; before he left, he said the speed of the courts made it impossible for him to play. This year, complaints about the fast courts and fast balls were rampant in Toronto, and unforced errors seemed to spray more frequently from the racquets of normally steady players.

Let’s see what happens in Cincinnati this time around. But speeding the courts back up may be a careful-what-you-wish-for proposition. In the era of baseline tennis, rather than serve-and-volley tennis, faster may not always mean more fun to watch.

Three major names—Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Aryna Sabalenka—are back. How do their draws look?

Cincinnati is doubly rewarded by the new Masters 1000 expansions. Not only is the tournament longer, it is now the preferred starting place for the top players as they start their US Open preparations. Canada came too soon for Sinner, Alcaraz, and Sabalenka, all of whom went deep at Wimbledon. So Cincy has the pleasure of hosting their second-half debuts.

Sabalenka pretty clearly has the rockiest road of the three. Her path, if seeds hold, looks like this: Vondrousova, Raducanu, Samsonova, and Keys or Rybakina in the quarters. Sabalenka is No. 1 and the defending champ, but she’s coming off a couple of brutal late-round Slam losses, to Coco Gauff at Roland Garros and Amanda Anisimova at Wimbledon. Will those take a toll on her hard-court swing?

Sinner is also the defending champ, and also hasn’t hit a ball since Wimbledon. But his road makes a title defense seem a little more manageable than Sabalenka’s. Lorenzo Musetti, no hard-court lover, is the second-highest seed in his quarter, and Tommy Paul is his projected road of 16 opponent; Sinner is 4-1 vs. the American.

As for Alcaraz, he went out early last year, and said he never gained command of his game on the quick surface. We’ll see if he’s better prepared this time around; he made the final the year before. If he’s in decent form, he should be able to handle the players in his quarter, which include Alex de Minaur, Alexei Popyrin, Andrey Rublev, Jakub Mensik, and Tallon Griekspoor.

Read more: “I left the court smiling”: How Carlos Alcaraz reset after Wimbledon loss

Jessica Pegula and Frances Tiafoe had career-best summers in 2024. Can they defend them?

Tiafoe, 27, and Pegula, 31, have been climbing the career ladder for many years. They both reached new summits in August and September last year, when they made the finals in Cincinnati, and followed that up with their best US Open results yet—Pegula reached the final in New York, while Tiafoe lost a close semi to Taylor Fritz.

Now comes the hard part: Defending all of that. Neither has made it past the quarters in D.C. or Canada.

Pegula is the No. 4 seed, which means she won’t face a higher seed until the semis; and she’s not in the same half with either Sabalenka or Iga Swiatek. But Clara Tauson, Belinda Bencic, and Karolina Muchova are in her quarter.

Tiafoe, the No. 10 seed, has landed in a decent spot. He’s not in a quarter with Sinner or Alcaraz; Ugo Humbert is the first seed he could face; and an ever-erratic Holger Rune is his projected fourth-round opponent.

Will we look back on the summer of 2024 as the peak for Tiafoe and Pegula? Taking a big step back this year would make that seem more likely.

Ben Shelton and Naomi Osaka made major strides toward Slam contention in Canada. Can they keep their rolls going in Cincy?

Shelton looks like a contender for the ATP’s most improved player of 2025. I’m not sure if Osaka, who played a full season in 2024, is eligible for the WTA’s comeback player of the year, but if she continues on like she has this week, she’ll be the de facto winner.

When Shelton first came up, he was largely living on a serve and a prayer. Now every part of his game, even his return, has become more polished, consistent, and effective. He won most of the long rallies against Alex De Minaur and Taylor Fritz in Toronto, and showed off a more varied and entertaining repertoire than either of them.

Shelton could be cruising for a letdown in Cincy, of course, but if he’s able to maintain his current level, another deep run looks plausible. His projected path to the semis looks like this: Norrie, Medvedev, and Zverev or Khachanov in the quarters.

Osaka, unlike Shelton, has been chasing an old version of herself for much of this decade. Numerous times she appeared to be turning that corner, only to squander a lead or lose a close final set. Until Montreal—this time it was Osaka who made an improbable comeback, against Liudmila Samsonova, and who gained confidence from there. In Cincy, she’s drawn into Coco Gauff’s quarter, and will start against Linda Noskova.

What are the early, or early-ish, matches to watch?

Jannik Sinner vs. Gabriel Diallo (3rd round) and Tommy Paul (4th round). Can anyone give the world No. 1 scare on a fast hard court? If Sinner has an off day, Diallo has the serve and Paul has the ground strokes to do it.

Holger Rune vs. Alex Michelsen (3rd round). The young American just made a quarterfinal in Toronto

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tallon Griekspoor (3rd round) and Jakub Mensik (4th round). Both Griekspoor and Mensik have had career-best seasons in 2025, and they like U.S. hard courts. Alcaraz could be vulnerable on a fast court in his first event back.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Emma Raducanu (3rd round) and Liudmila Samsonova (4th round). Will two brutal Slam defeats rob Sabalenka of some confidence?

Emma Navarro vs. McCartney Kessler (3rd round). Last year’s breakout American player vs. this year’s follow-up.

Read more: Can Coco Gauff hit the Nitro button with a Cincinnati-US Open double?

Clara Tauson vs. Belinda Bencic (3rd round)

Coco Gauff vs. Dayana Yastremska (3rd round). Gauff lost to her in the first round at Wimbledon. She’s really not going to want a repeat of that, just before the US Open.