We typically say that the fall season doesn’t mean much. And typically we’re right. In 2011, Roger Federer used this period, beginning in Basel, as a springboard back to No. 1 this summer. But that’s the rare piece of tennis history that’s made once the U.S. Open is over.
Yet as this year’s Basel final, between Federer and Juan Martin del Potro, progressed deep into the second set yesterday, I began to think that it could turn out to be one of the most significant matches, not necessarily of 2012, but of 2013. It was clear, after del Potro came out firing with his serve and his forehand, won the first set and threatened to break Federer late in the second, that he needed this one. Yes, it was the fall. Yes, it was a 500 rather than a Masters or a major. Yes, he’d already clinched a spot in London. But del Potro still needed to beat Federer, now. It was, after nearly three years, the final hurdle, both symbolic and real, in his long comeback from wrist surgery.
The match was symbolic because Federer was the man that del Potro beat in his biggest pre-surgery win, in the 2009 U.S. Open final. That match represented how high the Argentine had climbed and could climb, before his injury essentially forced him to start from scratch. Since then, del Potro had made it back into the Top 8, won a bronze medal at the Olympics, reached the quarterfinals of multiple Grand Slams, and beaten Novak Djokovic twice. But he hadn’t beaten Federer, and it had hurt him badly this season. Six times the Swiss had beaten him. Everywhere del Potro turned this year, everywhere he looked ready to get his big, lumbering game on a roll, from the Australian Open to Indian Wells to the French Open to the London Games, the Maestro had orchestrated his collapse. Del Potro had gotten closer; in Paris and at the Olympics he appeared to have the matches in hand. Both times he let it slip away. At Indian Wells, an Argentine journalist friend had told me that del Potro was struggling with the idea of playing Federer at that moment. It certainly seemed that way when they met in the semifinals. Del Potro let a single bad call early in the first set throw him completely off; it was never a contest.
By the end of the second-set tiebreaker in Basel, it looked like dejà vú for a seventh time in 2012. Del Potro controlled the first set and a half against a slightly off-form Federer. The Argentine’s crosscourt forehand had been devastating against Federer in the ’09 Open final; for the first time that I can remember, it was equally devastating against him again yesterday. But in the second-set tiebreaker, del Potro backed off of his ground strokes and misfired, just as he had in the crucial stages at Roland Garros and the Olympics. When del Potro floated a weak backhand wide to lose the tiebreaker 7-5, Federer let out a roar. He must have thought he had escaped again.
He must have thought the same thing when he reached break point at 3-3 in the third set. The Swiss crowd was loud, and del Potro was even more glum than usual. But this wasn’t the cruelly cool Federer that everyone has come to know and fear. Perhaps because he was at home, Federer had pressed for much of this match, and been more animated in his disgust than usual. He pressed again at break point, rushing an attackable forehand and hitting it long. It was the gift that del Potro needed. He held and settled in from there.
Federer had one more tactical trick to play. Early in the season, in Australia and at Indian Wells, he had used his patented, short one-handed slice crosscourt to keep the ball low and maneuver del Potro out of position. In del Potro’s next service game, at 4-4, he went back to the ploy at 40-15 and it worked. On the next point, Federer tried it again, but this time del Potro was there with a deep approach and a volley winner—Federer threw his head up in exasperation as the ball went past him. In the final-set tiebreaker, leading 2-1 and with the crowd at their loudest, Federer tried the short slice a third time, on a return of serve. The ball ended up in the bottom of the net. From there the crowd quieted as Federer committed three more errors and won just one more point. It might not have been pretty, but del Potro would take it, 6-4, 6-7 (5), 7-6 (3).
Federer said he had played decently, but, “I didn’t play a good tiebreaker in the third, and that was the story of the match.” It was, in a sense, a not untypical match for Federer these days. He made errors from the baseline (34 of them) but got himself out of trouble with his serve; he finished with 18 aces, including three in a row when he was down 15-30 at 5-6 in the third set. He said that he could feel del Potro getting closer against him this year, that he was always extremely tough to beat, and that now the Argentine “is right there again,” where he was in 2009.
Del Potro said it was an “unbelievable” match. “You can’t wait,” he said, “you have to go get the victory.” What was most impressive wasn’t the way he played the last tiebreaker—for the most part, he did wait, and it worked—but the way he hung in through the third set. After six losses, it must have felt like destiny had him by the neck. But del Potro got stronger as the last set went on.
Last year Federer used Basel as his jumping off point for 2012; can it serve the same purpose for del Potro next season? He’s over-tennised at the moment; he won in Vienna last week before coming straight to Basel. So it’s hard to expect too much from him in Paris, where he’s in Djokovic’s quarter. But the big man should be a force in London. More important, del Potro has cleared the psychological hurdle that kept tripping him up down the homestretch in 2012. He should be running and swinging a little more freely and confidently to start 2013. I don't think anyone is going to want to be in his way.