Madrid Open Final Betting Preview: Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka is into her sixth final of a season that's just four months old. This time, she’ll take on Coco Gauff for all the marbles in the Mutua Madrid Open. And while this match isn’t easy to call, it’s hard not to like Sabalenka as a number grab.

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Gauff has been absolutely incredible since arriving in Spain, and her straight-set dominance of Iga Swiatek last round was impressive. Between the end of the 2024 season and this run in Madrid, it’s clear that when Gauff’s forehand and serve become more consistent, she’s one of the absolute best players in the sport. But as long as Gauff has weeks like she had at Indian Wells, Miami and Stuttgart—where she went a combined 5-3—it’s going to be hard to back her at her current odds against a player like Sabalenka.

Even if Sabalenka loses this match, you can't feel bad about taking her in the -150 range. This is a player that has more wins than anybody over the last 52 weeks. She also has the second-highest hold percentage (77.8%) on the WTA Tour in that span, along with the third-highest break percentage (42.5%). There’s nobody in the women’s game that puts as much pressure on opponents as both a server and a returner.

On top of that, Sabalenka has all the power in the world along the baseline, she has improved her movement and she has even added a drop shot to her arsenal. Nobody on the planet is a more complete player right now.

These are also great conditions for Sabalenka. The Belarusian loves playing altitude clay, where her ball-striking is still incredibly dangerous and she's given more time to track down shots and load up. There’s a reason Sabalenka has won this tournament twice in her career, and she won those titles in 2021 and 2023—before she really made her improvements on the dirt.

Of course, Gauff beat Sabalenka the last time they met, in the WTA Finals, and we know her A-game is enough to compete with her. But the reason you take Sabalenka in a matchup like this is that she’s far more likely to play a solid match.

One note: this isn’t a play you should be making if you already have Sabalenka futures. I gave out Sabalenka to win Madrid at +400 before it all started, and I don’t believe in adding to a position this late in an event. If anything, if you’re holding a Sabalenka ticket, you might want to consider hedging.

Pick: Sabalenka ML (-149)