Curtain Raiser

Montreal can be seen in multiple ways and, depending on your point of view, assigned various meanings. At the most general level, it marks the beginning of the last extended Grand Slam act of the 2011 season. The curtain will be raised again after the dramatic mid-year peaks of Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and the world’s best players—on a new continent, in new clothes, perhaps with new attitudes and tactics and tans—will start another major-title drive from scratch.

Tennis historians might also consider this the first tournament of the Novak Djokovic Era. We’ve seen him win Wimbledon; we’ve seen him win over Conan O'Brien; now we see his name, for the first time, on the top line of a Masters draw. It’s not as odd a sight as I thought it would be. By now, Djokovic has been so good for so long that any other name there would be strange—and that’s saying something when two of those names are Rafael Nadal’s and Roger Federer’s. On the surface, there doesn't seem to be any reason for Djokovic to have a letdown. His game, as I've said before, is predicated on a lack of any weaknesses; with his serve and forehand in place, there's no obvious spot for him to break down, even if he does have the inevitable swings in confidence. What's worse for the rest of the field is that Djokovic, after dominating clay and grass, is coming back to his best surface.

For the prognosticators among us, the absence of well-known second-level challengers like Andy Roddick and Robin Soderling makes the Montreal draw, and by extension men's tennis, look as top heavy as it has ever been. Scanning through the names for a winner, it’s tough to see past the Big Four. It's tougher still to find a legitimate dark horse, or even a guy with an old-fashioned "puncher’s chance"—does that still exist in the men's game, or should the term be retired?— at the title. This top-heaviness has been good for the sport overall, but is there beginning to be a sense, outside of the Top 4, of stagnation?

If, however, you're just a fan of the game and you've missed seeing its best players over the last month, you might want to think of Montreal in its most basic and enjoyable way: As a tennis tournament. Because it promises to be a good one. Let’s see how it might go.

First Quarter
It feels like a new season in some respects, but one thing remains the same: As they have been at each Slam in 2011, Djokovic is slotted to face Federer in the semifinals, while Nadal and Andy Murray are paired off on the other side. It’s not that I particularly need another Federer/Nadal showdown at the moment, but I would like to see a new installment of Murray vs. Djokovic, a friendly rivalry that hit its own peak with their classic Rome semifinal in May. It will have to wait a little longer.

For this week, Djokovic will have to work to back up his new No. 1 status. He will likely start with Nikolay Davydenko, and after that could get the 16th seed and certified sleeper of the tournament, Juan Martin del Potro. The Argentine didn’t look good or move well in his upset loss to Ernests Gulbis in L.A. last week, and Djokovic handled him well at Roland Garros. In fact, he’s handled him with relative ease in all four of their matches.

Also here are Gael Monfils, who may come in gassed or may come in on a roll after his run to the final in D.C. this weekend; John Isner, who will be in a similar situation as Monfils; Viktor Troicki; and Marcos Baghdatis.

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Second Quarter
Federer, as you might have heard, is turning 30 as we speak—looking back, you'd have to say that his 20s were a success. As he did last year, Federer comes to Canada after a surprising quarterfinal loss at Wimbledon. In 2010, he reached the final in Toronto, by defeating—who else?—Djokovic in the semis and avenging that Wimbledon loss to Tomas Berdych in the quarters. Federer will have a chance to do all of that again, as he might face his latest Centre Court conqueror, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, in the third round.

That’s probably as tough it will get. The second seed in this section is Nicolas Almagro, and the third is Richard Gasquet. Tsonga will get a tricky match-up in the second round if he faces wild card and Wimbledon quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic.

Semifinalist: Federer

Third Quarter
So far the ATP song has largely remained the same. Here, however, we find a player who might surprise us. Mardy Fish, leader of the U.S. Open Series and first-time Wimbledon quarterfinalist, is seeded sixth and scheduled to play Andy Murray in the fourth round. Fish has never done much in Canada, or in Masters events in general for that matter. If he’s going to, as he says in his new K-Swiss commercial, make the summer of 2011 “my time,” Montreal is the place to start, the place where he will have to elevate his game. The players near Fish in the draw are Lopez, Stepanek, Gulbis, Ferrero, and Youzhny. Worthy opponents, but also guys that a sixth seed looking for more must beat.

As for Murray, he’s also in a similar situation to last year. He’s coming off a devastating semifinal loss to Nadal at Wimbledon and looking to put the pieces back together in relatively pressure-free North America. He succeeded at that last year in Toronto, where he beat Nadal and Federer in the semis and final. Murray likes the summer Masters in general, and his draw—Wawrinka, Nalbandian, Anderson, Andujar, and Montanes are near him—should give him a chance to ease his way into this one.

First-round match to watch: Nalbandian vs. Wawrinka

Semifinalist: Murray

Fourth Quarter
Nadal’s draw, like Federer’s and Murray’s, isn’t a killer—yet more evidence of how far the Top 4 have elevated themselves above the rest; it’s very hard to set them up with early round challenges, even at the famously well-stocked Masters events (this isn’t helped when two of the four wild cards have gone to Canadians Erik Chvojka and Vasek Popisil). The names near Rafa are Chardy, Dodig, Haas, Tipsarevic, and Verdasco.

The other side is only slightly more threatening. Berdych and Simon are the seeds, and in between are Dolgopolov, Karlovic, Monaco, and the aforementioned Chovjka. Nadal may still be stinging from his Wimbledon final defeat, but any lingering lack of confidence shouldn’t hurt him early here. Last summer, he seemed to use the Canadian Open as a little more than a tune-up for the Open; he lost in the semis to Murray in Toronto before going all the way in New York. But those were the days when he could afford to work his way into form and peak just in time for a major. I think Rafa will want to come out swinging a little harder this time around.

Semifinalist: Nadal

Semifinals: Djokovic d. Federer; Murray d. Nadal

Final: Djokovic d. Murray