We can say one thing about this Davis Cup final so far: It sounds serious. The average Argentine on the street is, according to the country’s team captain, Tito Vasquez, “very concerned” about it. Meanwhile, Spain’s captain, Albert Costa, assures us that his star player, Rafael Nadal, knows how “complicated” it’s going to be. What are we talking about here, a tennis match or the fate of the Euro Zone?
It’s bound to be a little more serious for the Argentines, who hail from By Far the Greatest Tennis Nation Never to Win the Davis Cup. Last time they were in the final, three years ago, they lost at home to a Nadal-less Spanish team in one of the most soul-crushing defeats I’ve ever seen in any sport—the team came unglued, on court and off, under the witheringly expectant glare of their long-suffering fans. This time the Argies will have to deal with Rafa, but having to go to Spain might be a blessing in disguise. At least on Day 1, the pressure will be off.
Everything is set in Seville: Draw? Check. Goofy team photos? Check. Argies rousted out of bed for early morning drug tests the day before play begins? Check. Here are a few aspects of the coming weekend to consider.
The Tactics
Vasquez, the widely unknown Argentine captain, hasn’t wasted any time making a name for himself. He has gone with Juan Monaco in the opening singles against Nadal, rather than using the old Davis Cup hand and former Nadal tormentor David Nalbandian. What’s the strategy here? Monaco has never taken a set from Nadal on clay, and is hardly known, as Nalbandian is, as a giant killer or a DC warrior (Monaco is 5-6 in DC singles lifetime; Nalby is 22-5).
With Nalbandian set to play doubles on Saturday, Vasquez may be saving him for the final Sunday singles rubber, presumably against David Ferrer. Or maybe not: Monaco actually has the better head to head record against Ferrer (he’s 4-3; Nalbandian is 5-7), and Nalbandian hasn’t played in more than a month. Either way, Vasquez is counting on del Potro to beat Ferrer the first day, and for his ad hoc doubles team of Nalbandian and Eduardo Schwank to beat Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco. We’ll see how it works out, but looking ahead, you can’t fault Vasquez for doing all he can to win the three matches that don’t involve Nadal.
(This was the tactic used by Russia’s Shamil Tarpischev when Russia lost to the U.S. in the 2007 final. He counted on Mikhail Youzhny to beat James Blake in the second match, but Youzhny couldn’t do it. I only mention this because it was funny, in an uncomfortable way, to sit in front of Tarpischev and Youzhny at a press conference the following day as the captain talked about how the guy sitting next to him had blown his brilliant plan to smithereens. Youzhny never flinched.)
The Keys
Nadal is the headliner, but the most important player for Spain will likely be their No. 2, Ferrer. While Argentina is counting on del Potro to beat him the first day, Ferrer is still the favorite in their matchup. He’s ranked No. 5; del Potro is No. 11, and while the two are tied 2-2 in their head to head (they’ve never played on clay), Ferrer has been a DC warrior himself over the years. He’s 16-4 lifetime in singles and has won numerous close and important matches for Spain.
Two downsides for Ferrer: (1) He says he’s tired right now, and he did do his share of hard work in London last week, on a very different surface—he’s done his share of hard work for many years now. (2) One key Davis Cup match that Ferrer didn’t win was in the final three years ago against Nalbandian. The Argie whipped him in straights, before everything went south for him and his team. Daveed-vs-Daveed could be the deciding matchup this weekend.
The Indispensable Man on the other side of the net will be del Potro—his captain is essentially asking him to save the day, and maybe do the impossible by beating Nadal on clay in Davis Cup. Del Potro will be hungry, both to win a title for his country and win again on a major tennis stage, something he hasn’t done since the 2009 U.S. Open. He’s been good in this competition in general, with the glaring exception of the ’09 final, when he was upset by Lopez in the crucial second singles. The big man is rested, he’s healthy, and whatever else happens in the tie, two singles wins would send him into 2012 on a very high note.
The Star
Is it a foregone conclusion that Rafael Nadal will win both of his matches? As far as making conclusions before events go, this is about foregone as you can get. Nadal is 18-1 in Davis Cup, hasn’t lost since his debut in 2004, and has never lost on clay or at home. Even after his bitter defeat to Novak Djokovic at the U.S. Open this year, he returned to Spanish clay the following weeked and played some of the most dominating tennis of his career. Seville is where he announced himself to the world by beating Andy Roddick in the DC final as an 18-year-old.
OK, caveats, we must have caveats. Nadal looked mostly awful in London last week. He sounds weary of getting up for matches right now. And he has lost to his potential Sunday opponent, del Potro, more than once on hard courts (never on clay). But he has to be happy about opening against his buddy Juan Monaco.
The Dubs
And then, just to mix everything up Davis Cup-style, we have the doubles, between the known quantity of Lopez/Verdasco and unknown quantity of Nalbandian/Schwank. The Spaniards should win; they’ve been at it for a while together in DC, and they beat Nalbandian and Augustin Calleri in the 2008 final. But they aren’t entirely reliable, even at home. With a chance to clinch the semifinal tie against France in Cordoba two months ago, Lopez and Verdasco managed to come up with just three games in three ugly sets against Michael Llodra and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
The Pick
As Costa said, it could get complicated, as it often does in Davis Cup. But for now it looks simple: Everything may ride on whether del Potro can beat Ferrer tomorrow. If he doesn’t, the Argies really should be concerned.
Spain 3-1