Davis Cup Previews and Predictions, Semifinals: Great Britain vs. Argentina; France vs. Croatia

As the debate about whether to revamp the Davis Cup continues—and continues, and continues—the semifinal show will go on this weekend in Scotland and Croatia. And it should be a good one. Despite all of the real, and alleged, problems with the format, the semis will include a showdown between two of the ATP’s biggest stars, Andy Murray and Juan Martin del Potro, as well as two traditional tennis powerhouses, France and Argentina, who are desperate to get in the winner’s circle. Here’s a look at how all of that may play out over the next three days.

Great Britain vs. Argentina
*Emirates Arena, Glasgow, Scotland

Indoor hard courts*

The best players tend to have gaudy Davis Cup records, in part because competing for their countries brings out the best in them, but also because they’re rarely facing top-level opponents. That won’t be true in this tie’s first rubber, when Murray puts his 29-2 record for the defending-champion Brits up against Del Potro’s 12-4 mark for the Argentines. Murray is 6-2 in their head to head, he beat Delpo in a tight four-set match for the Olympic gold medal last month and he has also been on a roll on home soil over the last two years.

All of which is bad news for Argentina. If Delpo can’t turn it around and come away with a win, his country will face an uphill fight thereafter. Murray is a virtual lock to beat Argentina’s No. 2, Guido Pella, on Sunday, and if he plays doubles with his brother, Jamie, on Saturday, they’ll be favored to beat Federico Delbonis and Leonardo Mayer.

If Del Potro does manage to pull off a win on Friday, much will rest on the result of the second rubber, between 49th-ranked Pella and 55th-ranked Kyle Edmund.

Winner: Great Britain

France vs. Croatia
*Kresimir Cosic Hall, Zadar, Croatia

Indoor hard courts*

The current generation of French veterans—Gael Monfils, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, Gilles Simon—is the best the country has produced in decades, but it has yet to have its name inscribed on the Davis Cup with French generations past. You can see one reason why when you look at their lineup against Croatia; the oft-injured Monfils and Tsonga are missing in action. That means Gasquet will be joined by 22-year-old Lucas Pouille in singles.

That isn’t such a bad thing. Pouille just beat Rafael Nadal at the U.S. Open, and he won a crucial rubber for France over Jiri Vesely of the Czech Republic in the quarterfinals. This time Pouille will have a tougher assignment, when he takes on Marin Cilic in the second match on Friday. As with Great Britain vs. Argentina, though, the key rubber here may be the first one, in which Gasquet takes on Borna Coric. Gasquet has had his share of DC triumphs and disasters over the last decade, but his country is going to need him in this one. Coric, meanwhile, is coming off an impressive fifth-rubber win over Jack Sock against the U.S. in the quarters. Gasquet and Coric have never played.

France-Croatia is a tough one to call. The French doubles team of Nicolas Mahut and Pierre-Hugues Herbert, one of the game’s best, should have the advantage over whoever Croatia puts out there. Can Cilic counter that by winning twice in singles? And who will have the edge in a possible deciding rubber between youngsters Coric and Pouille? I’m thinking the home fans could make a difference.

Winner: Croatia