Is there an Indian Wells curse among the men? In 2008, Novak Djokovic came to California having won the Australian Open and looking like a sure thing to catch Rafael Nadal for the No. 2 spot in the rankings. Djokovic won the tournament, but never caught Rafa. His career trajectory, which had gone straight upward to that point, flat lined for nearly three years. In 2009, Nadal won in Melbourne, won in Indian Wells, and then ended up having a semi-disastrous rest of the season—he lost for the first time at the French Open and had to pull out of Wimbledon.
The thing about Indian Wells is that it’s a big event—mandatory, dual gender, nearly two weeks long—but it’s also a very early event in a very long season. Looking back, you could say that in 2008 and ’09 Djokovic and Nadal, psychologically speaking, peaked too early. If you win a Slam and a major back to back, you have to think you’re on top of the tennis world, and you are. Then you have to look at the rest of your schedule, and you realize there’s no way you can stay on top of that world all season long, all the way through Key Biscayne, a grueling clay season, a brutally short grass season, and then back to hard courts again. It’s another testament to Roger Federer’s 2006 that he actually pulled that off, but it’s unlikely to happen again.
Djokovic, of course, is exactly where he was two years ago. He’s won the Aussie Open and is chasing after the No. 2 spot again, this time held by Federer. Should he throw in the towel and save himself for the long haul? Of course not, but whatever happens in Indian Wells, it probably shouldn’t be taken as a harbinger of much. Just ask last year’s winner, Ivan Ljubicic.
On to the draw, which, at first glance, gives off a powerful sense of déjà vu.
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First Quarter
That sense begins near the top, where Rafael Nadal might get a fourth-round match with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. These two guys have played a couple of classics here and in Key Biscayne, and there’s little reason to think we won’t get another—they play futuristic tennis against each other. Nadal has been injured and has only played one meaningful match, against a guy ranked outside the Top 100, since the Australian Open. But he appeared to be his normal self in Davis Cup last week, and he loves these courts, where he’s won twice before.
The counter-narrative to the Indian Wells curse is the one that Nadal played out when he won it in 2007. That year, and to a certain extent last year, he used the tournament as a jumping off point for the rest of his season. He hadn’t won in Melbourne either time, so he hadn’t peaked early. Last year he very specifically talked about how he was getting his game back tournament by tournament at this stage. He has a chance to think like that again in 2011. It's a mindset that suits him.
Who can stop the Nadal counter-narrative? The seeds in his section are Monaco, Baghdatis, Tsonga, Almagro, Montanes, Simon, and Ferrer. Of those guys, Tsonga, Simon, and Ferrer would seem to have the best shots, but if Nadal’s leg really is healed, I don’t think any of them will take it.
Semifinalist: Nadal
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Second Quarter
Déjà vu: It’s the Murray-Soderling quarter once again. These two played here last season, with Soderling winning. That match adds even more to the sense of history repeating itself. As in 2010, Murray is coming off a deflating loss in the Aussie Open final. Last year he wallowed in his disappointment all the way to Wimbledon; we’ll see how he reacts this time. It’s a surface and tournament where he has had success before, having reached the final in ’09.
As for Soderling, he’s in something of the same position that Caroline Wozniacki is in on the women’s side. Forget the majors for the moment—these are the tournaments he should be winning if he wants to continue to ascend. And he finally did win one last year, in Paris. For the most part, Soderling has played as well as anyone in 2011. He won two smaller events in February. We’ll find out whether his loss in Melbourne to Dolgopolov was a blip, or a sign that he's going to come down to earth at the bigger tournaments.
We may find out pretty quickly, because Dolgopolov, now a 20th seed, is hanging around Soderling’s part of the draw—they might meet in the fourth round. Other players here include defending champ Ljubicic, semi-resurgent Fernando Verdasco, semi-reeling Sam Querrey, and Tommy Robredo, whom I have no semi-description for. Robredo, as always, is just there.
First-round match to watch: Juan Martin del Potro vs. Radek Stepanek
Interesting wild card to watch: Richard Berankis
Semifinalist: Soderling
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Third Quarter
Wait, even more déjà vu? Here we have the memorial Djokovic-Roddick quarter. One guy, Djokovic, comes in on a major roll; the other on the more modest high of a successful Davis Cup weekend. Djokovic’s draw looks manageable (That’s my new favorite word for describing moderately difficult draws—got any other suggestions? I’ll need something soon). There’s Troicki, there’s Llodra, there’s 31st-seed Ernests Gulbis. (I was going to make a crack at the WTA yesterday when I saw that Julia Georges had somehow been seeded, but refrained; seeing Gulbis seeded at this point strikes me as similarly comic and incredible. Am I wrong?)
As for Roddick, he’s in the American section, near wild card James Blake and the struggling John Isner, who is down to No. 30 in the seedings. (Insert face-saving caveat boilerplate here: “Of course Isner’s serve always makes him a dangerous opponent …”). Roddick’s toughest test might come from Jurgen Melzer in the fourth round. It’s an interesting moment for Melzer. Which is the real Jurgen, the blazing upset artist of 2010, or the shaky-headed one from the rest of his career? I’m rooting for 2010.
Interesting wild card to watch: Bernard Tomic—he’s like a visitor from planet Oz, where all people wear sunglasses all the time.
Semifinalist: Djokovic
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Fourth Quarter
I’m not getting that déjà vu feeling here, even though Federer is lined up opposite Tomas Berdych and may face Igor Andreev in his first match—we’ve definitely seen that one before. Things have been turned inside out for Federer in the last year. When he won the 2010 Australian Open, it seemed that he would continue to cruise through most of the season and then turn it on at the Slams forever. By the end of the year, he hadn’t won a another major but had turned it on for Basel and the World Tour Final, a trend that continued when he won in Doha to begin 2011 and then got run out of Melbourne in the semis.
Will Federer become the maestro of the second tier in his tennis afterlife? That’s hardly a role that he would seek, but it does mean that a tournament like Indian Wells has a different meaning for him. None of his performances can now be written off with a shrug that says, “It only matters at the Slams for him.” More specifically for this event, Federer and his team will want to right the tactical ship, to re-focus whatever new moves they had working so well at the end of 2010. So sharp and decisive in London, Federer waffled between new and old strategies against Djokovic in Dubai.
The conditions aren’t perfect for him—slow courts will play even more slowly in the cool evening sessions he’s sure to headline. Can anyone take advantage? Mardy Fish, Milos Raonic, Stan Wawrinka, Marin Cilic, and Berdych—oh, and some unseeded guy named Davydenko—stand the best chances. Except for Wawrinka.
Interesting wild cards to watch: Milos Raonic, who could play Fish in the second round, and Ryan Harrison, who starts with Jeremy Chardy
First-round match to watch: Andreev vs. Nishikori, a nice forehand duel.
Semifinalist: Federer
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Semifinals: Djokovic d. Federer; Nadal d. Soderling
Final: Nadal d. Djokovic
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Come by Tennis.com at 11 AM Eastern for a live chat with me about Indian Wells, and anything else you have in mind. I’ll be at the tournament starting Friday.