What’s my prediction for the Serbia-France Davis Cup final this weekend? The only thing I’m sure of at the moment is noise. Hair-band-level noise. Reporting from the 16,000-seat Belgrade Arena this week, the Times’ Clive White wrote, “It’s debatable which has achieved the greater decibel level [in the arena]: any Davis Cup tie or the recent Guns N Roses concert.”
Still, the captain of Serbia’s opposition, Guy Forget, doesn’t sound all that perturbed. He says the atmosphere will be “warm”—thank you for making “Understatement of the Year” such an easy category in 2010, Guy. “It’s very nice,” Forget added, “it’s wonderful.” Until Friday, that is. As White points out, in his British way, the Serb fans “still have some way to go before fully understanding tennis etiquette.” God, I hope that doesn’t mean free Thunderstix, but I’m guessing it does.
The first two players to face the noise will be Janko Tipsarevic and Gael Monfils. It’s a slight surprise that Tipsarevic, ranked No. 49, holds a 3-2 career edge over the 12th-ranked Monfils, though the last time they played, at the U.S. Open this year, La Monf got him in four sets, two of which went to tiebreakers. If you have an insight into who’s going to win this one, let me know, because it looks like a toss-up to me. Monfils is the superior talent, athlete, and player, but he’s played just four Davis Cup singles matches, winning three of them. Tipsarevic is a DC lifer with a 25-10 career record in 10 years of competition. He’ll obviously have the crowd behind him (in front of him, all around him), and he’ll know this is the chance of a lifetime for his country and a chance at local immortality for him. How he reacts to all of these factors, we shall see. But I would probably go with him in the end; despite his recent Paris performance, and his strong DC showing this year at home, I still don’t trust Monfils in the big moment, against the crowd.
Whichever way it shakes out, that first rubber is going to be big, because Forget has decided to throw Gilles Simon up against the Serbs' anchorman, Novak Djokovic, rather than risk wearing out his doubles ace, Michael Llodra, on a not-as-quick-as-he-would like hard court. Djokovic is 5-1 against Simon, and to say that the Djoker will be fired up for this match, well, that might outdo Forget in the understatement of the year department. Djokovic has borne the pressure of his role well this season, and I don’t see why it would change in the final. Unless . . . unless . . . Monfils were to win the first match, in which case the crowd could prove to be a burden on Djokovic. Instead of feeling their energy, he might start to feel their nerves, the way the Argentine players felt the nerves of their fans a couple years ago in the final against Spain. You want to keep that audience working for you, because they can be a heavy burden to carry if they’re not.
The doubles will be the second crux of the tie, more so than normal because neither of the Sunday singles matches—Djokovic/Monfils, Tipsarevic/Simon—is a sure thing. Troicki-Zimonjic and Clement-Llodra are both strong teams. All four guys have winning doubles records in Davis Cup, and Llodra and Zimonjic would be dubs Hall of Famers if there were a dubs Hall of Fame. A lot depends on the circumstances going into this one. If the Serbs are up 2-0, I’d bet on them to ride the momentum home. If it’s 1-1, the French have a much better shot; at a neutral site, they're probably the better team. If the French do survive to Sunday, which I think they will one way or another, Llodra could become a bigger factor than he seems to be at the moment. Djokovic and Monfils will play first that day; as of now Simon is scheduled to go against Tipsarevic if a fifth match is necessary. That might end up being a relatively rested Llodra instead.
All of which means that the heavy pressure will reside where it should: On the shoulders of the team’s two best singles players. Monfils could very quickly turn the tie in France’s direction with a win in the opening match over Tipsarevic. Whether or not that happens, though, Serbia’s hopes will remain pinned on Djokovic. How he respnds to that should decide the Davis Cup. Three years ago, the U.S.’ hopes rode with Andy Roddick, and he won at home. Two years ago, though, David Nalbandian, Juan Martin del Potro, and the Argentines came unglued under similar circumstances in the Massacre at Mar del Plata. So it can work both ways. Djokovic has embraced the pressure by making Davis Cup the focus of his season. He says it will be the weekend of their lives. That’s a lot to put on yourself, but as I said he’s borne it well so far this season, winning all of his singles matches. However it ends up, seeing Djokovic’s crazy passion, his effort, his emotional highs and lows, his deep breaths and puffed chest, at the center of all that home-crowd noise should go down as one of the highlights of 2010. I'll take it over Guns N Roses anyday.
Serbia: 3-2