Elena Rybakina set to pass Iga Swiatek for No. 2 ranking after reaching Indian Wells semis

Elena Rybakina will pass Iga Swiatek for No. 2 when the new WTA rankings are released next Monday, the WTA has projected.

It’ll be a new career-high for the two-time Grand Slam champion.

The shift comes after Thursday’s quarterfinals at Indian Wells, where Swiatek—the current No. 2—fell to Elina Svitolina, and Rybakina—the current No. 3—defeated Jessica Pegula. Swiatek will be dropping points, having reached the semis last year, while Rybakina will be adding points, having fallen fourth round last year.

Both of them lost to Mirra Andreeva here a year ago.

Rybakina needed to finish one round further than Swiatek in order to pass her on the WTA rankings, and after Swiatek’s earlier 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 loss to Svitolina, that door opened—and she walked through it, storming through the first set and then battling back from 4-1 down in the second set to make it past Pegula, 6-1, 7-6 (4).

“It really happened quite quickly,” Rybakina said of the early second set deficit. “I have to say, Jessica played well a couple points and I played a little bit passive, and it turned around very quickly.

“After that I was fighting for each ball, trying to stay close to the score, and I’m just happy I managed to win in two sets in the end.

“Definitely my serve was helping me a lot.”

Her delivery certainly did come through on the biggest points, as she fought off four of the five break points she faced in the match, while converting three of her own four break point chances.

Rybakina is now through to the semifinals of Indian Wells for the second time in her career, having captured the title in 2023.

Awaiting the No. 3-seeded Rybakina in the semifinals will be the No. 9-seeded Svitolina, but despite the disparity in their rankings, they’re a dead even 3-3 in their career head-to-head.

The two have only played each other once on hard courts, and it was a big match, the bronze medal match at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021—and Svitolina came through that time, 1-6, 7-6 (5), 6-4.

Svitolina also won the pair’s most recent meeting, in the third round of Madrid last year on clay in straight sets, 6-3, 6-4.