Elena Rybakina vs. Aryna Sabalenka: Indian Wells final preview, prediction and where to watch

Did Aryna Sabalenka guarantee a victory—in her own way, of course—in the BNP Paribas Open title match?

“You know, I’m so done losing these big finals,” she said after her semifinal win over Linda Noskova on Friday.

Big-stage collapses have been a problem, and an unusual one for  a player who has been the clear No. 1 for the better part of two years. She’s 4-4 in Grand Slam finals, 0-2 in title matches at the WTA Finals, 0-2 in finals at Indian Wells, and 22-20 in finals overall.

Sabalenka concedes that her underdog opponents have played well in many of these matches. But she also correctly laments her own failure to control her emotions, and make better choices with her shots.

“I just want to focus, if I make it to the final, I want to make sure that I get it, I get the trophy,” she says.

It’s hard to say how Sabalenka will play on any given Sunday. She can be in total control of her game and her opponents in the earlier rounds, as she has at Indian Wells so far, and still see it all unravel in the final. Unfortunately for her, that has been especially true when she sees Rybakina across the net. Sabalenka is 1-4 against her in finals, and lost to her in two important ones recently: At the WTA Finals in November, and the Australian Open in January.

I’m so done losing these big finals. Aryna Sabalenka

As Sabalenka says, Rybakina’s tour-best serve, and first-strike skills from the baseline pose problems for her (and everyone else).

“I feel like against Elena, it’s always super-aggressive, it’s all about the first few balls in every point,” Sabalenka says. “If you dominate in those two points, I feel like most likely you’re gonna win the point. It’s very aggressive, very fast tennis.”

Read more: "I want that match!": Aryna Sabalenka gets desired Indian Wells final opponent in Elena Rybakina

Rybakina is playing as fast as ever, with much more consistency that she showed for most of 2025. Not only has she won two big titles since November, she’s coming off straight-set wins over two of the hottest players on the WTA side, Jessica Pegula and Elina Svitolina, in Indian Wells.

Rybakina says the courts and conditions here may make this final a little less slam-bang.

“We know each other’s game very well,” she says of Sabalenka. “It’s a lot about physical, I would say also, because here, the ball is heavy, the rallies a little bit longer than on the other hard courts, which are a little bit quicker.

“It’s gonna be difficult match where we both gonna try to serve well, that’s for sure, put pressure, and, I mean, we will see what’s gonna happen.”

Whatever happens, it’s going to happen early. The final is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. California time, which may mean the crowd files in as the match progresses. Sabalenka has played a lot of finals where she isn’t the crowd favorite, so she may enjoy the chance to compete in a more peaceful setting. But if it’s bright and breezy, and she’s on edge, the conditions may affect more than they will Rybakina, who still comes in with less pressure on her.

Whatever the result, the competition should be intense. Sabalenka is determined not to lose another final, while Rybakina has showed her grittier and more emotional side in her wins over Svitolina and Pegula. With success comes ambition: She wants to continue at her current level and challenge Sabalenka for No. 1.

Normally, I would default to the rankings, and Sabalenka’s consistency, and pick her to win here. In this case, though, I think Rybakina’s 4-1 record against her in finals, anther current confidence, speak a little louder.

I’m not sure Sabalenka, despite her semi-guarantee of victory, is done losing these big finals just yet. Winner: Rybakina