The ATP's rankings have been largely settled, but its final event is as unsettled as it’s ever been. You would think that 11 months of duking it out against each other would leave the men’s game with an established pecking order, but for the moment, the 2011 hierarchy has largely collapsed. Instead, what we’ve got coming into London are question marks and opportunities.
The question marks start right at the top, with the world’s two best players, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. The former arrives in London after defaulting his last match due to a shoulder injury, while the latter hasn’t been seen since losing early in Shanghai in October. Out of those questions marks come the opportunities. Roger Federer, the defending champion, and Andy Murray, the Eternal Almost, stand to benefit from the uncertainty above them.
It took a long time to get here, but the ATP’s season-ending championship is upon us. Whatever the results, what’s best about this unique event are the matches themselves. Each one is tough, or potentially tough, and each one is showcased with a session of its own—though, as ticket buyers who find themselves watching Ferrer vs. Berdych rather than Nadal vs. Federer may attest, not all sessions are created equal.
Viewers in the U.S. will get our traditional—and with the ATP schedule shortened next year, final—Thanksgiving week tennis feast. We’ll see how it plays out. Sometimes this tournament yields a surprise (see Nikolay Davydenko’s win two years ago), but more often it doesn’t (see Federer’s five titles, and the Federer-Nadal final of a year ago).
Group A
Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych
Head to heads
Djokovic vs. Murray: 6-4; vs. Ferrer: 6-4; vs. Berdych: 7-1
Murray vs. Djokovic: 4-6; vs. Ferrer: 5-3; vs. Berdych: 1-3
Ferrer vs. Djokovic: 4-6; vs. Murray: 3-5; vs. Berdych: 5-2
Berdych vs. Djokovic: 1-7; vs. Murray: 3-1; vs. Ferrer: 2-5
Which of these numbers stick out or surprise? I knew Berdych’s big game has matched up well of late against Murray—the Czech doesn’t fear him the way he fears the other top guys, and he knows he’ll get to hit his shots—but I didn’t realize that Murray hadn’t beaten him since 2005. Ferrer’s 5-2 record over Berdych is also a little more lopsided than I expected, though the two have only played once since 2007.
Other items of note:
—The early consensus was that Murray had landed in a good spot, away from Nadal and Federer, and with an ailing Djokovic. On paper, though, it’s not all that easy—Murray has losing records against two of his three opponents. As for his sometimes-delicate psychological state, Murray claimed this week that he doesn’t feel the pressure of the British fans and media when he plays at home. After seeing his semifinal performances at Wimbledon over the years, I can’t say I believe him. This tournament, in a sense, is the equivalent of a major for him. It’s the only way, short of winning a Slam, that Murray’s career can move forward.
—Djokovic’s health and mindset will go a long way to determining what happens here. If he’s in decent shape, he should at least sneak into the semifinals as the second player out of this group. On the plus side: He opens on Monday with Berdych, a player he’s beaten seven of eight times.
Semifinalists: Murray, Djokovic
Group B
Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Mardy Fish
Head to heads:
Nadal vs. Federer: 17-8; vs. Tsonga: 6-2; vs. Fish: 7-1
Federer vs. Nadal: 8-17; vs. Tsonga: 6-3; vs. Fish: 6-1
Tsonga vs. Nadal: 2-6; vs. Federer: 3-6; vs. Fish: 1-0
Fish vs. Nadal: 1-7; vs. Federer: 1-6; vs. Tsonga: 0-1
What sticks out here? To start, these numbers are a reminder, in case we’ve forgotten, that Nadal is a formidable presence in this group. He has never won this tournament, but he’s 30-11 against his three upcoming opponents. On paper he has to be the favorite to come through here, even if he’s rusty to start. Like Djokovic’s, Nadal’s opener is a fortunate one. He gets a recently injured Mardy Fish on Sunday night. In the last week or so, we’ve heard that Nadal has been training with 2012 in mind, and he undoubtedly wants to be at his best for the DC final, so this may function as the start of Nadal’s new year rather than the wrap-up of the old one. If so, that's a good mindset to have.
Other items of note:
—Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has spoiler potential. The flashy Frenchman has wins over both Federer and Nadal, this fall he won in Vienna and was runner-up in Paris, he plays well indoors, and he should relish the World Tour Finals stage, which he hasn’t been on since 2008. A win by him over Federer—they start the event on Sunday afternoon—or Nadal would throw over the presumed order in a hurry.
—Mardy Fish might be slowed by a hamstring injury; what might be even tougher to overcome is his star-struck mentality. He’s already admitted that he doesn’t feel like he belongs with this group. An ambush of Nadal in their opener—Fish won the last time they played, this summer—would be a good way to overcome that.
—Federer has obviously been on his game. He’s won two tournaments in a row and showed some vintage stuff against Berdych and Richard Gasquet in Paris. But there were some familiarly shaky moments in the second set of the final against Tsonga, moments that he’ll likely have to shake off to advance in London. And while his record against Nadal is poor, he did beat him on this court last year, and has beaten him at other WTFs in the past. If he can open with a win against Tsonga, I think this is Federer’s tournament to lose.
Semifinalists: Federer, Nadal
Semifinals: Murray d. Nadal; Federer d. Djokovic
Final: Federer d. Murray