Expert Picks: Indian Wells champions, dark horses and early exits

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Peter Bodo

• Men's finalists and champion: Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner
  • Djokovic 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Alexander Bublik
• Men's early exit: Andrey Rublev

The hot sun and dry air in the desert will ensure that the tournament will be another servapalooza, with balls and plus-one forehands flying like bullets. So look for the likes of Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton and Hubert Hurkacz, among others, to flourish.

• Women's finalists and champion: Elena Rybakina vs. Coco Gauff
  • Rybakina 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Marta Kostyuk
• Women's early exit: Ons Jabeur

This tournament is a potentially critical test in Naomi Osaka’s drive to return to the elite level. She won two matches in Dubai enroute to the quarterfinals (she benefitted from one walkover) in her last outing. With the clay season looming, Osaka can use a confidence building run.

Liya Davidov

• Men's finalists and champion: Alex de Minaur vs. Jannik Sinner; Sinner 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Karen Khachanov
• Men's early exit: Alexander Zverev

On the men's side, there’s been a handful of top-performers, and then there’s everyone else. Something in the desert air is hinting in favor of the player who's not atop the rankings, but is playing better than anyone.

• Women's finalists and champion: Mirra Andreeva vs. Coco Gauff; Gauff 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Danielle Collins
• Women's early exit: Ons Jabeur

What can be expected of the women’s draw? Madness. The season so far is proof enough that expectations are a fool's errand. The young guns are testing the veteran players, and no one, even at the top, can hide behind their seed.

Joel Drucker

• Men's finalists and champion: Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner
  • Djokovic 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Daniel Altmaier
• Men's early exit: Holger Rune

Back after a five-year absence, Djokovic will receive plenty of fan support and draw on that to pursue a sixth BNP Paribas Open title. His unsurpassed mix of movement and deep, flat groundstrokes also make Djokovic’s game a perfect fit for the thin air and slow court speed.

• Women's finalists and champion: Elena Rybakina vs. Coco Gauff
  • Gauff 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Mirra Andreeva
• Women's early exit: Ons Jabeur

The many improvements Gauff showed last summer on her way to winning the US Open will continue to surface superbly as she navigates her way through this tournament’s slow hard courts. Movement, a powerful backhand, sharp serving, and command of the intangibles can take her to the title.

Matt Fitzgerald

• Men's finalists and champion: Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner
  • Djokovic 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Karen Khachanov
• Men's early exit: Andrey Rublev

It’s been eight years since Novak’s last IW triumph. With Sinner setting the pace so far in 2024, a rested Djokovic is ready to join the conversation on that front by capturing the first Masters 1000 trophy of the season at a venue eager to welcome him back.

• Women's finalists and champion: Iga Swiatek vs. Victoria Azarenka
  • Swiatek 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Sorana Cirstea
• Women's early exit: Marketa Vondrousova

While there are a few familiar faces who’ve troubled the world No. 1 in the past lingering as possible hurdles, Swiatek is a quintessential problem solver. She also knows what it takes to win in the California desert conditions, as does Azarenka.

David Kane

• Men's finalists and champion: Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner
  • Djokovic 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Sebastian Korda
• Men's early exit: Daniil Medvedev

This is Novak’s moment to clear any doubts—however quiet—about his place atop the game. Sinner has been on a roll since last fall, but Djokovic’s motivation should be sky high in his first trip to Indian Wells since 2019.

• Women's finalists and champion: Elena Rybakina vs. Aryna Sabalenka
  • Rybakina 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Caroline Wozniacki
• Women's early exit: Iga Swiatek

It’s an Australian Open repeat for Swiatek, who is projected to play Danielle Collins and Linda Noskova in her first two rounds. One nearly beat her in Melbourne, the other finished the job. Tennis Paradise boasts a slower surface, but Collins has been in especially good form in the last month.

Jon Levey

• Men's finalists and champion: Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz
  • Alcaraz 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Taylor Fritz
• Men's early exit: Alexander Zverev

What a pleasure to see Rafael Nadal back healthy and in a big tournament. He may not win it all, but his corner of the draw is gettable. A possible second round generational clash with Holger Rune is why Rafa keeps lacing ‘em up.

• Women's finalists and champion: Elena Rybakina vs. Coco Gauff
  • Gauff 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Caroline Garcia
• Women's early exit: Ons Jabeur

If Swiatek is going to win this title, she will have to earn it. She’s got possible matchups with Danielle Collins, San Diego Open champ Katie Boulter or Linda Noskova—who beat Iga in Australia—and old nemesis Jelena Ostapenko all in her quarter. The tennis gods weren’t kind to the No. 1 seed.

Stephanie Livaudais

• Men's finalists and champion: Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner
  • Djokovic 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Taylor Fritz
• Men's early exit: Alexander Zverev

Coming off an early upset to Daniel Altmaier in Acapulco, Zverev arrives in Indian Wells looking for a confidence booster. But he may be left searching after landing in a tricky section where Alexander Bublik (who owns their H2H 3-1) or the red-hot Alex de Minaur (who defeated him at this year’s United Cup) could await.

• Women's finalists and champion: Elena Rybakina vs. Jessica Pegula
  • Rybakina 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Jelena Ostapenko
• Women's early exit: Ons Jabeur

Ostapenko has the chance to play the ultimate wildcard in Indian Wells, having landed in a section anchored by Iga Swiatek (Ostapenko owns their H2H 4-0) and Jabeur, whose fitness is a question mark. And after winning titles this year in Adelaide and Linz, the Latvian looks ready to cause more draw chaos.

Ed McGrogan

• Men's finalists and champion: Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner
  • Medvedev 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Jordan Thompson
• Men's early exit: Holger Rune

It won't make up for his loss to Sinner in Melbourne, but Medvedev—9-2 in 2024—will exact some revenge in the desert. Thompson punches above his weight, and in his fifth tournament after the Australian Open, he'll be rewarded for his diligence.

• Women's finalists and champion: Elena Rybakina vs. Aryna Sabalenka
  • Rybakina 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Mirra Andreeva
• Women's early exit: Marketa Vondrousova

Rybakina nearly completed the Sunshine Double last year and is due for a big result, but it also feels like Sabalenka's time to reassert her authority. Andreeva won't be unseeded at 1000s for much longer and could take advantage of her quarter.

Steve Tignor

• Men's finalists and champion: Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner
  • Sinner 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Alex de Minaur
• Men's early exit: Andrey Rublev

To me, Sinner is the story to start the men’s event. Backing up his Australian Open win with another at Indian Wells is a Big 3, No. 1-player type of thing to do. Is he ready for that, or are there still ups and downs ahead?

• Women's finalists and champion: Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka
  • Sabalenka 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Naomi Osaka
• Women's early exit: Elena Rybakina

Osaka has been active again for a couple of months, and she showed some signs of her old self at her last event, in Doha. Indian Wells is where she broke out with a title run in 2018; maybe it’s where she breaks back out in 2024.