Expert Picks: Miami Open champions, dark horses and early exits

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Peter Bodo

• Men's finalists: Alexander Zverev vs. Casper Ruud
  • Champion: Zverev 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Ben Shelton
• Men's early exit: Holger Rune

Some may think my finalists picks are surprising at best, bizarre at worst. But while Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev (the Big Three of the moment) may shine, the mens’ game is so loaded with talent—including very young talent—that I’m calling for anarchy.

• Women's finalists: Iga Swiatek vs. Elena Rybakina
  • Champion: Rybakina 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Emma Navarro
• Women's early exit: Ons Jabeur

Some may think my finalists picks are well-considered at best, boring at worst. On the womens’ side, some key, highly-accomplished players—Ons Jabeur, Jessica Pegula, Caroline Garcia—are a little, if not a lot, off their A-games. Look for the fresh Rybakina to to salvage her sunshine swing.

Liya Davidov

• Men's finalists: Holger Rune vs. Jannik Sinner
  • Champion: Sinner 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Alexander Bublik
• Men's early exit: Casper Ruud

It’s safe to expect similar performances in Miami as were seen in Indian Wells. While another deep run from Tommy Paul would be amazing to see, his second-set ankle twist in the semis against Medvedev is concerning. The other three semifinalists have been at the top of their game, but Alcaraz will have an even bigger target on his back from Sinner and Medvedev down in Florida.

• Women's finalists: Iga Swiatek vs. Zheng Qinwen
  • Champion: Swiatek 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Simona Halep
• Women's early exit: Maria Sakkari

Swiatek and Gauff are going to be top competitors in Miami. Swiatek is carrying the Indian Wells win and Gauff is a competitive firecracker who wants to achieve a better result for the second Sunshine draw.

Joel Drucker

• Men's finalists: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner
  • Champion: Sinner 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Adrian Mannarino
• Men's early exit: Casper Ruud

The eclecticism of Carlos Alcaraz. The velocity of Jannik Sinner. The guile of Daniil Medvedev. Chapter One of the Sunshine Swing eloquently revealed each man’s lively skill set. Will that continue in Miami? Or can others, such as Alexander Zverev, Holger Rune and Tommy Paul, assert themselves even more?

• Women's finalists: Iga Swiatek vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
  • Champion: Swiatek 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Peyton Stearns
• Women's early exit: Jessica Pegula

In Miami’s early rounds, I’m keen to see how well several past Grand Slam champions compete and conduct themselves. Is Naomi Osaka continuing to progress? What more can Victoria Azarenka and Caroline Wozniacki bring? Then there’s Simona Halep, back in action after an 18-month exile.

David Kane

• Men's finalists: Ben Shelton vs. Jannik Sinner
  • Champion: Sinner 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Ugo Humbert
• Men's early exit: Alexander Zverev

The big-serving Frenchman blitzed his way to the Dubai title, and should feel equally at home on the quick Miami courts.

• Women's finalists: Coco Gauff vs. Liudmila Samsonova
  • Champion: Gauff 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Simona Halep
• Women's early exit: Iga Swiatek

Halep has been training over a year for this moment, and few appear more eager to make up for lost time than the former world No. 1.

Jon Levey

• Men's finalists: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner
  • Champion: Alcaraz 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Ben Shelton
• Men's early exit: Casper Ruud

Admittedly, a complete prisoner-of-the-moment finals prediction. But who doesn’t want another round of Alcaraz and Sinner, this time with the title on the line. It’s going to be a treat watching these two figure each other out over the next decade.

• Women's finalists: Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina
  • Champion: Rybakina 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Peyton Stearns
• Women's early exit: Zheng Qinwen

After her dominant performance in Indian Wells—no extended sets and three bagels—it kind of feels like Iga vs. the field. The thinking here is she can’t sustain such a high level, but it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if Swiatek completed her second Sunshine Double.

Stephanie Livaudais

• Men's finalists: Holger Rune vs. Jannik Sinner
  • Champion: Sinner 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Matteo Berrettini
• Men's early exit: Andrey Rublev

After Berrettini’s strong showing at Phoenix Challenger last week—his first tournament since the 2023 US Open due to injuries—he seems primed for a solid run in Miami. Drawn against Andy Murray in the first round and landing in a section anchored by an out-of-sorts Andrey Rublev won’t hurt either.

• Women's finalists: Iga Swiatek vs. Elena Rybakina
  • Champion: Swiatek 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Beatriz Haddad Maia
• Women's early exit: Ons Jabeur

She may not be playing in Brazil, but make no mistake, Haddad Maia is practically on home soil in Miami. The Sao Paulo native’s face is splashed across billboards all along I-95, and the fervent fan support may be just what she needs to give her season a jumpstart.

Ed McGrogan

• Men's finalists: Hubert Hurkacz vs. Jannik Sinner
  • Champion: Hurkacz 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Felix Auger-Aliassime
• Men's early exit: Alexander Zverev

Poland's other top pro, Hurkacz, took a puzzling loss at Indian Wells, but he's won Miami before and nearly reached the semis in Melbourne. Call it a hunch, but chalk doesn't always survive the madness of March.

• Women's finalists: Iga Swiatek vs. Elena Rybakina
  • Champion: Swiatek 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Naomi Osaka
• Women's early exit: Ons Jabeur

Osaka has steadily improved since her January return, and it feels like a big result is coming. How about a semifinal run in Miami? Meanwhile, no looks like they have what it takes to slow down the Swiatek freight train right now.

Steve Tignor

• Men's finalists: Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner
  • Champion: Sinner 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Karen Khachanov
• Men's early exit: Hubert Hurkacz

This is the last big tournament on North American soil until July. Typically, U.S. players have an advantage in Miami because Europeans will start thinking about the flight home when they fall behind. Can any of the Americans take advantage of that, and the local support they get, before they move to clay?

• Women's finalists: Iga Swiatek vs. Zheng Qinwen
  • Champion: Swiatek 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Katie Boulter
• Women's early exit: Elena Rybakina

Can anyone stop Swiatek from her second Sunshine Double? It won’t be easy; she’s in bagel-machine mode right now. Look for Linda Noskova, who beat her in Melbourne, to give her a run in the third round. But Coco Gauff will have to play better than she did in Indian Wells to have a chance in the semis.