Fall comes at us fast as the 2025 Asian swing heats up

There’s a side benefit to having young players at the top of the tour again: They tend to play the whole season, without taking a ton of time off. We’re only a couple weeks removed from the US Open, and already Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, and most of their Top 10 colleagues have posted up for the Asian swing.

That makes this week's ATP event in Tokyo, and dual-gender tournament in Beijing, very much worth following. Alcaraz and Sinner will continue to vie for the year-end No. 1 ranking, Swiatek will try to make up ground on the absent Aryna Sabalenka; and a dozen other players will look to put themselves in position to make the season-ending events in Turin and Riyadh.

Here are three things to watch for in the week and a half ahead.

Who are the favorites, and what are the matches to look forward to, at the women’s China Open?

With 96 players—including most of the Top 30—$9 million in prize money, and 1000 ranking points to the winner, Beijing is a major event on the women’s side. But it’s one that can fly under Western fans’ radar. Even Gauff admits that she uses the Asian swing to try to fix her flaws before the Slams season begins again. In her case, though, practice really did make perfect last year, as she ended up winning the tournament.

Gauff, the No. 2 seed this time, will be practicing her serve with new coach Gavin MacMillan. What are the chances she can repeat? The good news is that the WTA’s No. 1, Sabalenka, pulled out with an injury. The bad news is that the WTA’s No. 2, Swiatek, is in the field, and in form. She won this tournament in 2023, won Wimbledon earlier this summer, is coming off a title run last week in Seoul. She has no points to defend in Asia, and seems ready to make a run at No. 1 again.

Read more: Iga Swiatek captures milestone 25th WTA title of career in Seoul with gritty victory over Alexandrova

But like anyone else at a tournament this size, Swiatek will have obstacles in her path. She could face Anna Kalinskaya, who beat her last year and played her close at the US Open this year, in the third round; Emma Navarro or Liudmila Samsonova after that; and Naomi Osaka or Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals.

Possible third-round matches to watch:

Swiatek vs. Kalinskaya

Navarro vs. Samsonova

Pegula vs. Emma Raducanu

Osaka vs. Marta Kostyuk

Victoria Mboko vs. Clara Tauson

Amanda Anisimova vs. Wang Xinyu

Belinda Bencic vs. Jelena Ostapenko

Gauff vs. Leylah Fernandez

Who looks more likely to win: Carlos Alcaraz in Tokyo, or Jannik Sinner in Beijing?

The ATP’s top two met in the Beijing final last season, and dueled into a third-set tiebreaker before Alcaraz finally grabbed the trophy. This year Sinner will return to China, but Alcaraz has opted for Tokyo instead. Maybe some space is good: The Spaniard recently said he sees the Italian more than he does his own family.

The fields they’ll be facing are roughly the same strength. Taylor Fritz, Holger Rune, and Casper Ruud are the three seeds behind Alcaraz in Tokyo. Alexander Zverev, Alex De Minaur, and Lorenzo Musetti are the three seeds behind Sinner in Tokyo.

At the moment, Alcaraz leads Sinner by roughly 800 points in the rankings, and 2,500 in the year-end race. These two 500s will mainly serve as warm-ups for the Masters 1000 that starts in Shanghai on October 1st.

I’ll say Sinner, who will come in rested, may stand a better chance of walking away with a title than Alcaraz, who just spent a busy weekend playing Laver Cup.

Who are some of the more interesting players to follow at this point in the season?

Some of the names in action this week that catch my eye:

Naomi Osaka: She shines in the Slam spotlight, but has won very few other events in her career. This summer she finally returned to her top form, and nearly made the US Open final. Can she keep it up in China?

Mirra Andreeva: The teen was great in the winter and spring, but just OK in the summer. Which version will we see in the fall?

Victoria Mboko: She was unbeatable at home in Canada. Will we have to wait a while for another performance like that from the 19-year-old?

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Jasmine Paolini: How much confidence can she take from her BJK Cup heroics? The Italian is on the bubble for Riyadh.

Amanda Anisimova: With her two Slam-final runs, the American had a breakout year, but a bittersweet one as well. Where does that leave her for the rest of the season, and is she someone who can become a fixture in the Top 10?

Taylor Fritz: The American just recorded two big wins in Laver Cup, over Alcaraz and Zverev. Will that leave him tired, or confident, in Tokyo?

Frances Tiafoe: He’s out of the Top 25, and is coming off a two-loss performance in Davis Cup. Can Tiafoe gather himself and avoid a total fall-off before the year’s end? He’ll play Marton Fucsovics in his opener in Tokyo.