Federer takes apart defeatist Thiem for 1-1 round-robin mark in London

HIGHLIGHTS: Roger Federer d. Dominic Thiem, 6-2, 6-3

Very early on in his round-robin contest against Roger Federer at the Nitto ATP Finals, the industrious Austrian Dominic Thiem wore a subtle look of resignation on his face. Without really knowing it, he was advertising his discomfort and lack of trust in his game plan. Thiem and Federer had both been beaten in their first round-robin matches at London’s O2 Arena, with each of these men bowing in straight sets. Thiem had suffered a 6-3, 7-6 (10) loss to Kevin Anderson, and then later on Sunday afternoon an out-of-sorts Federer was ousted 7-6 (4), 6-3 by Kei Nishikori.

That meant Federer had no alternative but to succeed against Thiem; otherwise, he would have been out of the tournament. Facing that fact with his usual brand of professionalism, Federer went to work diligently and intelligently. He realized that Thiem was abandoning his customary court positioning, straddling the baseline whenever possible, trying to take everything on the rise, and looking to outperform Federer with this aggressive posture.

To Federer, that was the best of news. He might have been more worried if Thiem had stationed himself comfortably behind the baseline, creating more time for big swings and overwhelming power. But Thiem clearly came out on court determined to assert himself differently today. The French Open finalist was testing a notion he hoped would work, but his strategy was fundamentally a failure. Meanwhile, Federer’s court sense and ground stroke execution was first rate, and he served with extraordinary consistency. He was relaxed, confident and in a much better frame of mind than he had been against Nishikori, and Federer simply stamped his authority on the match from beginning to end, cutting down Thiem, 6-2, 6-3.

And so he remains very much in contention. Federer is 1-1 now, and has won two of four sets. Anderson is the front runner in Group Lleyton Hewitt because he is 2-0 in matches and 4-0 in sets. Moreover, the 6’8” South African has an outstanding record in games won and lost at 25-10. Anderson will face Federer on Thursday. If Anderson topples Federer in straight sets and thus finishes 3-0 in matches, he wins the group and there could potentially be a three-way tie for second if Thiem were to stop Nishikori in straight sets.

That would mean Federer, Thiem and Nishikori would all be 1-2 in matches. One of them would join Anderson in the semifinals, but the math is complicated. It would come down to games won and lost. Meanwhile, if Federer wins in two sets over Anderson and Nishikori beats Thiem in straight sets, Thiem is out, but the group would be decided again by games won/lost among the other three players. Federer, Anderson and Nishikori would all finish with 2-1 match records and 4-2 set records, but one member of that trio would not make it to the semifinals

In any case, it will be a fascinating Thursday as we find out who will emerge from the Hewitt Group.

PRESS CONFERENCE: Roger Federer

Be that as it may, today was partially about Anderson’s stunningly one-sided triumph over Nishikori, but more so about the survival of Federer. Right off the bat, Thiem revealed his insecurity. The reason for his apprehension may well have been his uncertainty about how he wanted to play, but we will never know.

What was clear, however, was that Thiem did not believe in himself. He had been victorious in two out of three career skirmishes against Federer, but that statistic was essentially meaningless: they had not met since June 2016. This was an appointment between two players who had not clashed in a very long time, and Thiem seemed intimidated from the outset. In the opening game of the match, he was down break point, but saved it with a 124 M.P.H. first serve out wide to the backhand. After three deuces, he held on tenuously for 1-0. Federer found himself at 30-30 in the second game, but took the next two points easily on errant returns to make it 1-1.

Serving in the third game at 30-30, Thiem bungled a pair of forehands to lose his serve, and Federer was off and running. He held at 15 with an ace at 125 M.P.H. down the T to advance to 3-1. Thiem held on from deuce in the fifth game, but Federer moved to 4-2 with another ace. Thiem was clearly confused. At 30-30 in the seventh game, Thiem double faulted and then tried a serve-and-volley combination, flagrantly missing a backhand first volley. On to 5-2 went Federer. The Swiss had his masterful precision back on serve, and he held at 15 to close out the set.

Federer had cruised through that set in 31 clear-eyed minutes, pouring in 67 percent of his first serves, winning 79 percent of those points. On second-serve points, he took 71 percent. Thiem connected with only 53 percent of his first serves and won only 53 percent of those—an alarmingly low number. His second serve points won at 47 percent was not abysmal, but the fact remained that he was too often struggling on his own delivery.

Nothing much changed in the second set. Thiem remained defeatist in his outlook and Federer never doubted himself in the least. In the opening game, Thiem double faulted to put himself in a 15-40, predicament, and was soon broken at 15 on a forehand approach driven long off a short return from the Swiss. Federer swiftly held at love for 2-0. Thiem at last had a routine service hold in the third game, but Federer put a love hold on the board for 3-1.

The utter ease with which Federer was holding only compounded Thiem’s doubts. The Austrian held in the fifth game, but had to save a break point along the way. Federer could see the finish line looming, holding at 15 for 4-2. After Thiem held at love in the seventh game, Federer closed out the account with a love hold and another break in the ninth game. Altogether, Federer won 86 percent of his first serve points and 81 percent on second serve, taking 32 of 38 points on his delivery.

MATCH POINT: Federer d. Thiem

Winning without stress was a bonus for Federer. He had been out of sorts and cranky in his loss to Nishikori. He has an arduous assignment on Thursday against an in-form Anderson, the same man who rallied from two sets to love and match point down to beat him 13-11 in the fifth set at Wimbledon. Both players will like their chances.

The fans will be fervently behind Federer. The outcome will largely be settled by a few crucial points as the two competitors dominate on serve. It should be a fascinating encounter that will tell us all we need to know about how far Anderson has come across 2018 as a big-match competitor. We will also discover whether or not Federer has recovered his best form in time to be around for the weekend.

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