It’s this the one? Has the U.S., after 10 long years of sliding helplessly around gloomy indoor arenas all over Europe, found a World Group clay tie they can win? It’s been a solid decade since they beat Brazil away on dirt. Since then the Davis Cup scenario has been depressingly similar for the Americans. Roddick, Blake, and company look good in the early rounds in the U.S., then face the inevitable trip overseas and are snuffed out in a cloud of red dust. This time the trip came early, as they open their 2007 campaign in Ostrava, Czech Republic this weekend (they don’t even get to go to Prague!). That means clay; does it mean trouble?
The Americans probably won’t get a better chance, at least on paper, to end the clay curse. The Czechs have a star Top 20 player, Tomas Berdych, but their No. 2, Ivo Minar, is ranked outside the Top 100 and is making his Cup debut. Their doubles team, Lukas Dlouhy and Pavel Vizner, are also playing their first Davis Cup match together, against the best team in the world, the Bryan brothers. But as we know, this is Davis Cup, and the U.S. has lost similar ties to seemingly inferior teams. The inclusion of Berdych guarantees the Czechs a shot; at the very least, he’ll make things interesting.
The draw is out, the players are teeing it up tomorrow, so let’s run it down match by match.
1. Andy Roddick vs. Ivo Minar (TV: Versus, Fri., 12:00 P.M. EST)
I saw Minar play when he reached the final in Sydney in 2005 and thought he was an up and comer, with solid power and nice feel. Then I saw him get thrashed by Roger Federer 1, 1, and 1 in the first round of the U.S. Open later that year and haven’t heard a word about him since. He’s been lost on the Challenger circuit lately, but he does seem to gravitate toward clay events. With the home crowd behind him, he could trouble Roddick. But I think Andy has been playing well enough to win when he should.
Winner: Roddick
2. James Blake vs. Tomas Berdych
This one is a toss-up. Blake has won all five sets the two have played; both times Berdych tried to match Blake’s turbo groundies and ended up going down in a hail of ugly errors. But he’s more adept on clay than Blake, and he’ll have the crowd. This will be another test for James. Who will we see, the smart and fired up Blake who’s won a slew of tournaments in the last year, or the hangdog, tail between his legs Blake we see on some of the biggest occasions? If I had to guess, I'd say the latter.
Winner: Berdych
3. Bob and Mike Bryan vs. Lukas Dlouhy and Pavel Vizner
I don’t think I’ve seen either of the Czechs play. My colleague Jon Levey describes Dlouhy as “ornery,” but he was up a set on Marat Safin at the French Open last year. That’s not saying a whole lot, but it’s clear he can play a little. Oh, didn’t Dmitry Tursunov say in his blog that Dlouhy struck out with all the models at a player party? Or was that someone else?
Winner: Bob and Mike Bryan
4. Roddick vs. Berdych
If this is a live rubber, it’ll be exciting, if somewhat lacking on the style front. These are two of the biggest bruisers in the game, and both have monster serves. Berdych won their only meeting, in convincing two-set fashion last fall in Madrid. His solid serve allowed him to take a few more chances in return games, and he was stronger from the backcourt than Roddick. I can see a repeat of that scenario on clay.
Winner: Berdych
5. Blake vs. Minar
Wow, this is turning out to be a close one! It shows you what one good player can do for a team. If it does go to a fifth rubber, Blake’s mettle will be tested once again. He’s still not a clay natural, and nerves will creep in, but one thing Blake has gotten better at over the last two years is beating the people he’s supposed to beat. And Minar, no matter how pumped he is on Sunday, is still one of those guys.
Winner: Blake
Otherwise, we’ve got Russia heading to Chile. You have to pity the Russians and wonder about their motivation after winning the whole thing just two months ago. Also, Davydenko, Tursunov, and Youzhny are out. I’ll take Chile, though Gonzalez must be weary after his long run in Melbourne and immediate trip to Viña Del Mar last week.
