by Pete Bodo
The results of 2011 suggest that we're in a period of transition — on the WTA side, the four Grand Slam events produced four different champions, three of whom (Kim Clijsters, Li Na and Sam Stosur) are much closer to the end of their careers than the beginning. Stosur, at 27, is the youngest among them; Li, 29 is the oldest. This suggests that the future belongs to 21-year old Kvitova and others, perhaps including Victoria Azarenka, like her.
And on the men's side, Novak Djokovic has re-shaped the landscape at the top, Andy Murray emerged as a serious contender at the majors, Rafael Nadal's aura of invincibility is somewhat tarnished, and a host of youngsters including Milos Raonic, Ryan Harrison, and Bernard Tomic are developing well — and let's not forget what Juan Martin del Potro may do to upset the ATP applecart.
As further evidence that change is in the air, five of the biggest names in tennis — all Grand Slam champions — are facing severe challenges from father Time — and the rankings rat-race — as 2012 bears down on us. Let's take a quick look at their prospects:
Venus Williams (current WTA No. 102) — You undoubtedly saw the news today: Venus has pulled out of an Australian Open warm-up tournament, the ASB Classic in New Zealand. A spokesperson for Venus was cagey in a recent conversation with our Matt Cronin, who asked what Venus's decision to pull out of the ASB meant vis a vis the Australian Open itself. The rep would only say that she is "working toward that goal (to play at Melbourne)." That's not a very encouraging sitrep.
Venus is 31 years old, and still recovering from Sjogren's syndrome, an immune-system disease that can cause fatigue and joint pain — not symptoms easily navigated in the workplace by a 31-year old tennis player who's been injury-prone in the late stages of her career. So I'd say the prospects of Venus even swinging a racquet in Australia, much less contending for the title through two often brutally hot weeks, are indeed dim.
On the other hand, Venus didn't play any tune-up tournaments early last year, either. So perhaps she's just laying low and keeping her cards close to her vest. Still. . . Venus on the cusp of direct entry with her present ranking, but unless she plays and earns a few points soon, she'll probably have to qualify (although she'll be a highly-prized wild card at any tournament) once the 160 rankings points she earned with her two wins in Melbourne last year drops off the computer, or a few of the women ranked below her make a move.
Serena Williams (No. 12) — Whenever the Williams sisters are lumped together, a number of their fans will protest and (rightly) point out how it's inaccurate as well as somewhat demeaning to treat them as one unit; they're very different in many ways despite their closeness. But while Serena looks to be in much better shape for 2012, the fact that she's also going on 31 and failed to win a Grand Slam event in 2011 for the first time in five years ought to give even the most ardent Serena fans a slight sense of unease.
Granted, Serena had a near-death experience last winter, following on a nearly crippling foot injury — a combination of handicaps that kept Serena out of action for almost an entire year. That's a lot of time to give up, and when Serena returned to compete at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, she was unable to pull off the miracle that so many fans and pundits expected. That begs the question: Can Serena still do that neat magic trick, where she steps into the fray at any time she chooses and rips through the entire field to win a tournament?
I'm not sure what the answer to that is, but I know that the competition has changed and a transition is underway. And I know that Serena is 30 years old. You can't ever write her off, she's shown that. In that regard, the Australian Open might be a telling tournament.
Francesca Schiavone (No. 11) — Schiavone was the surprise champion at the French Open last year (and runner-up to Li Na this year), and she finished as the year-end No. 7 in 2011. But like Venus, she's 31 years old, and she plays a game that is both effetely and physically taxing (she takes great big cuts but has also profited handsomely from stealth attacks and general all-court play — tactics that are better pursued with fresh legs and a youthful recklessness).
Schiavone started this year strong, with a quarterfinal in Australia (l. to Wozniacki). The high-water mark was the French Open, where she pushed Li before losing 6-4, 7-6 (0). But she didn't survive a third round after that until New Haven (l. in semis to Wozniacki). She made the fourth round of the U.S. Open (l. to no. 17 Pavlyuchenkova), but she was just 1-3 the rest of the year, suggesting that she just plain ran out of gas.
!PicAndy Roddick (ATP No. 14) — He'll turn 30 next August, and it's mildly ironic that in this, his first year out of the year-end top 10 in a decade, he finished with the same annual ranking as in 2001 — a year before he crashed that elite company.
It would b be unfair to this superbly consistent player to predict a tailspin — Roddick is made out of better stuff than that. But judging by the events of 2011, he'll have his work cut out if he wants to be in the mix near the top again.
Roddick was 1-1 in finals this year (W at Memphis, L at Brisbane), a significant decline in his quality results. But of greater concern, he was not nearly as competitive at Grand Slam events as in the past, when you could count on him to be a force at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. He lost to Stan Wawrinka in the fourth round at the Australian Open, missed the French Open, was beaten at Wimbledon in the third round by Feliciano Lopez, and in the U.S. Open quarterfinals by Rafael Nadal.
The disturbing thing, though, is that while he played very well in the warm-ups to those tournaments (final at Brisbane [l. to Soderling], semi at Queens [l. to eventual champ Murray], and semi at Winston-Salem [l. to Isner]), his resistance melted away at the majors, where each of his losses was in straight sets. That suggests a mentally tired tennis player.
Lleyton Hewitt (No. 186) — I have to include this quintessential "Aussie battler" despite his abysmal ranking, that woeful 9-11 record for 2011, and prize-money earnings ($147,443) that in one of his good years he would have made in an afternoon's work a dozen times during the year. The statistics suggest that Hewitt is finished, but in typical fashion he's having none of it. Just read his own thoughts on the matter. Although he's been plagued by injuries, Hewitt has always been fit and nobody, but nobody, has a greater appetite for competition.
You never, ever count out a guy like Hewitt. He's into the Australian Open with a wild card; if he remains injury-free, I think he's going to make a significant statement at least once again in his career. Why not next month?