by Pete Bodo
Mornin'. I think we'll continue with the "handicrapping" theme today, taking a counter-intuitive approach to the draw at Indian Wells by picking the players who are likely to stumble out of the hunt earlier than their seeding or reputations might indicate. If you're curious just why we're going this route, or about the origin of the concept of handicrapping, refer to yesterday's post.
So let's move on and look at the women most likely to flame out under the hot desert sun over this next week-plus at Indian Wells. One of the curious things in this exercise is that it forces you to ask the question, "What, really, is an upset?" I mean, does a loss by Nadia Petrova (she's seeded No. 18) to Jie Zheng qualify as an upset?
Technically, of course, it does. Petrova is seeded and ranked more highly. But is anyone going to get on the blower with a friend and shout, "Hey, did you hear—Zheng beat Petrova at Indian Wells!" Likewise, would you be shocked if Kimiko Date-Krumm beat Ana Ivanovic (No. 19)? These are unsettled if exciting times for the WTA, and that inevitably takes some of the bite out of handicrapping. But here we go:
Vera Zvonareva (No. 3): Granted, Vera gets dumped on a lot for her almost Kafka-esque history, encompassing a remarkable series of ups and downs that are both triumphant and bittersweet. She's reached No. 2 in the WTA world rankings, but not No. 1; she's played multiple Grand Slam finals already, but she's never won a major. Will she wind up as that line drawing in the dictionary, illustrating the word, "runner-up?"
Well, give Vera credit for proving wrong those critics who looked at her victory at Indian Wells in 2009 as a fluke. Since then, she's built a great resume and seems to have overcome the turbulent emotions that once seemed to be a real handicap. But I also think she's due for a bit of a hiccup, and some well-earned mental rest, after the great effort she put in at Doha to snatch the title from the hands of world No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki. I think she takes her eye off the ball and goes down before the semis.
Victroria Azarenka (No. 8): I can see any number of players in Azarenka's quarter taking her out, including her first opponent, Ekaerina Makarova—the winner of a tough three-set war with Canada's Rebecca Marino yesterday. And if Urszula Radwanska can't get done, her sister Agnieszka (No. 9) is on track to take on Azarenka in the fourth round.
Marion Bartoli (No. 15): Nobody would call a second- or third-round loss by Bartoli a major upset, but either German hipster Andrea Petkovic or the woman she plays next, Lucie Safarova, can take out Bartoli. Although Safarova can claim a fair share of credit for the resurgence of Jelena Dokic (having lost to her twice this year, most recently in the Kuala Lumpur final), she's playing well and gave up all of five games to Bartoli when they met in the third round at KL.
Na Li (No. 7): Li hasn't won a match since she captivated us at the Australian Open, and while i think she may win a few here, I don't see her making her seed—not with Svetlana Kuznetsova waiting in the fourth round. Of course, Kuznetsova is an expert at disappointing us, so I wouldn't take this to the bank. But Shuai Peng could make that potential match-up irrelevant if she takes out Li in the second round.
Francesca Schiavone (No. 5): We love 'Cesca, we count on 'Cesca, to provide us with great drama and inspiration. But at this stage in her life (she's closing on 31), consistency just isn't as pressing an issue as it might be for a youngster on her way up. An Alize Cornet or (more likely) 19-year old slugger Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who beat Jelena Jankovic in the final at Monterrey last weekend, could sit her down early.