Are the rules about honesty looser on Canadian sports TV than they are in the States? After watching Rafael Nadal sneak out of a second-set tiebreaker against Kevin Anderson last night, I walked into the press room to hear the lead commentator on Toronto’s tennis broadcast say something along the lines of, “You'd have to say this result was good for the sport, and obviously tournament organizers are going to pleased.” The second assertion is undoubtedly true—it’s an understatement, really—and, outside of Anderson’s extended family, you’d get widespread agreement on the first as well. Nadal’s win meant that the Rogers Cup’s four top seeds had advanced to the quarterfinals and set up a long star-studded Friday of tennis.
How have your predictions worked out so far? My one mistake thus far was taking Soderling to reach the semis out of Murray’s quarter. Just when you think the Swede is a blue-chip competitor who wins matches he shouldn’t, he goes and loses a match that he should have won, against David Nalbandian. I guess Soderling, no matter how menacing his stalk, will always be prone to going off the boil and not being able to find his way back onto it. At the same time, who would have predicted that Nalbandian’s will, and legs, would have held out this long? If you want to know how unpredictable tennis can be, the fact that the surprise of the summer is turning out to be the Grouchy Gaucho is all the proof you need.
Since it’s just a few hours until that long Friday begins, I’ll take quick look ahead at what we might want to look for as it transpires.
David Nalbandian vs. Andy Murray
The day’s first quarter could be its best. Nalbandian is 2-0 against Murray, though one of those wins came back in 2005 at Wimbledon, when Murray was still testing the pro waters. I’d say that Nalbandian should get tired in this one, but you could have said that before any of his matches so far. Murray had a lapse against Monfils yesterday, but that’s not unusual; both he and Nalbandian will bend for a while before they break. Each guy likes to rally, each returns well, neither will serve the other off the court. Nalbandian likes to punch; Murray likes to counter-punch. The question may be, when Murray makes Nalbandian take that extra punch in the middle of the court, will the Argentine connect? Will he do it 50 times?
Rafael Nadal vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
“Nobody beats Philipp Kohlschreiber seven times in a row.” Is that what we’ll be hearing later this afternoon? Chances are slim. Nadal is 6-0 against the German, and he couldn’t ask for a better match-up. PK is on the short side, and he has a one-handed backhand—a lethally bad combination against Nadal's leftiness. Which makes it kind of a surprise that he’s taken three sets in those six matches. PK, a streaky and at times fabulous shot-maker—the backhand is one to watch—tends to do that, though. He puffs himself up and puts together a brilliant run, but can’t stay on top of his opponent long enough. And Nadal has gotten steadier over the course of his first two matches.
Roger Federer vs. Tomas Berdych
It didn’t take long for a rematch of their Wimbledon stunner. Federer has looked fine so far. He’s been a little more aggressive with his returns, and he’s taken his opportunities to come forward, though it’s hard to say whether that’s a trend or just something he felt he needed to do against the net-rushing Michael Llodra. When it comes to immediate revenge, he’s been hit and miss—he didn’t get it against Cañas way back when, but he did, with a few hiccups, exact it against Gulbis this spring. Berdych is a better player than both of those guys, and much of the match will be on his racquet—his serve and forehand will tell a lot of the story. At Wimbledon, Federer’s forehand went off, and he played cagily rather than aggressively in the end. He says he’ll look at what went wrong there and adjust. We’ll see what that means. Whatever his decision, the big night crowd will be supporting it.
Novak Djokovic vs. Jeremy Chardy
Djokovic caught a break by being scheduled late, out of the heat. He hasn’t done anything special in this tournament, just what he needed to do to win. Yesterday he got very tight trying to finish Victor Hanescu, which is not exactly a good sign. Chardy has had a semi-breakthrough tournament, beating Verdasco and Davydenko (easily). Like most Frenchman, he’s a shot-maker with all-around polish, and he hits a heavy ball. But he also plays with more first-strike risk than his countryman traditionally have. Until now, Chardy, whose strokes a take a while to unfold, has never shown any special skills or weapons that would lead you to think he’s going to rise of out of the lower second-tier. If he’s loose, he’ll be able to get Djokovic on the run. As with Nalbandian in the first match, it might come down to his consistency in finishing the points when he has that advantage.
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Enjoy them. Talk to you later.