Game, Set, Bet, presented by BetMGM: Daniil Medvedev vs. Andrey Rublev, Dubai final

If there was any argument as to who the hottest player on the ATP Tour currently is, Daniil Medvedev squashed it on Friday. The Russian, who has won titles in back-to-back weeks, earned a 6-4, 6-4 win over world No. 1 Novak Djokovic in the semifinals of the Dubai Tennis Championships. Djokovic had previously been unbeaten to start the 2023 season, and the Serbian claimed his 22nd Grand Slam title at the Australian Open. But none of that intimidated Medvedev, who played one of the best matches of his career to advance to the final. Now, the Russian will look to earn a third title in a row when he faces fellow countryman Andrey Rublev.

You won’t catch us picking against Medvedev with the way he’s playing right now—especially after having just highlighted how impressed we are with the 27-year-old—but we don’t have much of a problem predicting that this match will go a bit longer than expected. Medvedev is a massive -450 moneyline favorite heading into this one, but that line seems a bit disrespectful to Rublev. While Rublev didn’t quite beat a player of Djokovic’s caliber to get here, he did win in straight sets against Alexander Zverev, who happened to be playing very well coming into the match. Rublev also made it to the quarterfinals of the Australian Open and is ranked sixth in the world right now. Medvedev isn’t exactly facing a slouch.

This happens to be a head-to-head series that has gone Rublev’s way in each of the last two meetings. Rublev earned a 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 win over Medvedev in Cincinnati late in the 2021 season, and he also earned a 6-7 (7), 6-3, 7-6 (7) win over him at the ATP Finals back in November. With that in mind, we know Rublev can give Medvedev some trouble when he’s playing well, and that’s the thing: he is playing well.

Ultimately, Medvedev’s recent form makes it hard to believe that Rublev will find a way to outlast him—especially considering Daniil is one of the fittest players on tour, so fatigue isn’t likely to catch up to him. But asking Medvedev to beat a player like Rublev without any hiccups is unfair. That’s why we’re playing the Over on the game total in this matchup. If Rublev can send one of the two sets to a tiebreaker, then all he’d need to do in the other set is win three games for this play to hit. Or he could lose 7-5, 6-4, which would also send this one Over.

It also isn’t outrageous to think that this match will require Medvedev to win in three sets, which would make it nearly impossible for this play not to hit. Overall, we like the chances of this one turning into an extended battle. These two have played two three-set matches in a row, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t make it three.

Bet: Over 21.5 Games (-110)