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Game, Set, Bet, presented by BetMGM: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Alex de Minaur, Barcelona

Dimitrov beat de Minaur in a tight three-setter earlier this year; with the rematch on clay, he'll be feeling good about making it two in a row.

ByZachary Cohen

Published Apr 20, 2023

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On Thursday, April 20, Grigor Dimitrov will look to take out Alex de Minaur at the Barcelona Open. While de Minaur is the higher-ranked player, Dimitrov enters this match as a favorite—and we agree.

These two each have a won over the other, but Dimitrov won their last encounter, in Rotterdam, on February 17. That was an extremely tight battle in which the 31-year-old won 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 (6). But that was also on an indoor hard court, which should have favored de Minaur. Dimitrov is the more effective clay-court player between these two, and it’s by a pretty significant margin.

Dimitrov’s Elo rating on clay is 1835.0, and that’s the 19th-best mark in tennis. De Minaur’s clay-court Elo rating is just 1775.5, which has him ranked 32nd. Dimitrov has a career record of 86-62 on the dirt, while de Minaur is just 17-24 on the surface over his career. That’s a pretty massive difference, although we do have to mention that de Minaur is 10-7 on clay over the last 52 weeks.

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The reality of this matchup is that Dimitrov just has a little more variety to his game, which comes in handy on this surface. While de Minaur is one of the fastest players in the world, Dimitrov moves well on clay. That means that the Australian won’t have a significant advantage when it comes to court coverage. Dimitrov also has the better serve between these two; his hold percentage is up at 83.7% over the last 52 weeks. When you combine that with the fact that Dimitrov is a very dangerous returner on clay (32.4% break percentage), it’s hard not to like the Bulgarian to come through here.

The serve really has the potential to swing this match. De Minaur is only getting 55.1% of his first serves in this season, and he can’t afford to give Dimitrov that many looks at his second serve. Serving might not be as important on clay as it is elsewhere, but you can’t win matches if you’re constantly digging holes for yourself.

Overall, between Dimitrov’s advantage with the ball on his racquet and his clay-court pedigree, this is a great spot to back the 31-year-old. So, let’s throw a little money on Dimitrov and watch him go to work with that beautiful one-handed backhand.

Bet: Dimitrov ML (-130)

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