Betting Central

Game, Set, Bet, presented by BetMGM: Iga Swiatek vs. Jessica Pegula, Doha

The world No. 1 is quickly putting the recent past behind her, and we expect that trend to continue.

Published Feb 17, 2023

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It’s hard to put into words just how dominant world No. 1 Iga Swiatek has looked in Doha this week. After losing in straight sets to Elena Rybakina in the fourth round of the Australian Open, it wasn’t clear which version of Swiatek we'd see upon her tour return. But we have quickly learned that the Pole is back at her absolute best, as she dropped a total of two games in wins over Danielle Collins and Veronika Kudermetova. Swiatek has barely broken a sweat on court this week, and she’ll now look to win her first tournament of the 2023 season. And she’ll do so against a very familiar opponent: world No. 4 Jessica Pegula.

Pegula has also been impressive throughout the week, earning wins over Jelena Ostapenko, Beatriz Haddad Maia and Maria Sakkari. The American also happened to beat Swiatek the last time they faced one another, 6-2, 6-2 at the United Cup. With that in mind, Pegula will be feeling pretty good about herself entering this match, but we’re not exactly confident in her success continuing.

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Swiatek is 4-2 against Pegula, with all four victories coming in 2022. Pegula won their last encounter, at the United Cup in January.

While Pegula won in January, Swiatek was dealing with a shoulder issue. The Pole looks to be back to full strength, so it’s hard to put much weight into the result—especially because Swiatek had won straight against Pegula heading into it. This is a matchup that has given Pegula fits in the past, and while she has done well to reach the final, she was pushed to deciding sets in her wins over Ostapenko and Sakkari. She has been considerably more vulnerable than Swiatek throughout the course of this event.

There are few if any players that can beat Swiatek when she is rolling like this. Look for her to put pressure on Pegula right from the jump, as she’s the best returner of serve in the world. She should quickly have Pegula doubting her own ability to hold, despite the fact that the American is probably a Top 15 server on the WTA Tour. But Swiatek’s ability to get balls in play—and dictate play from the second she gets her ball on the racquet—will be massive.

From there, you can expect Swiatek to cruise to a win, needing only two sets to get the job done.

Bet: Under 21.5 Games (-150)

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