RF

One thing you can say for the men’s draw at the Olympics: It’s different. Refreshingly different. Where the Grand Slams sprawl beyond memory's reach, and the Masters’ draws get flat-out repetitive, the lineup for the Games is simpler and more surprising. There are 64 players rather than 128. There are no byes. But because the players are chosen by country as well as ranking, there are faces you don’t always see floating in between the usual big-name suspects. Until the final, the matches are also two out of three, instead of Wimbledon’s three out of five. That could potentially make things less predictable, though it should be pointed out that playing two of three sets, even on grass, is hardly a new or strange phenomenon for these guys.

Unfortunately, there’s one other difference, and there’s no getting around its negative effect: There’s no Rafael Nadal at the top or bottom or anywhere else. The Top 4, or at least the Top 3, are such a phenomenon at this point that when one is missing, a big event feels unbalanced, like a chair with a leg that's too short.

Here’s a look at how the players who have made it to London may fare when they go for gold. There’s a lot to play for, and a lot of pressure on every game and set. An Olympic medal is something special for any athlete, something revered, something that everyone recognizes as a rare achievement. And, as Rafa said in Beijing, “It’s once every four years, no?”

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First Quarter
Roger Federer is the immediate beneficiary of his rival Rafa’s absence. With Nadal out, David Ferrer is bumped up to the fourth seed and scheduled to play Federer in the semifinals. (I guess he’s the short leg in my chair analogy; no offense, Daveed.) Instead of potentially facing Nadal or Murray, who have a collective 26 wins over him, Fed gets Ferru, who has a collective zero.

To start, though, Federer has what you might call an ironic opening to his draw. He begins with Alejandro Falla, who was up two sets to none on him at Wimbledon in 2010; and in his second round, he could play Julien Benneteau, who was in the same position at Wimbledon this year. Of course, Federer is more likely to play Benneteau’s opponent, Mikhail Youzhny, a player he just drubbed for the 15th consecutive time earlier this month.

Also here: Tipsarevic, Isner, Muller, Verdasco, Karlovic

First-round match to watch: Tipsarevic-Nalbandian

The long and the short of it: Isner vs. Olivier Rochus

Sleeper: Gilles Muller

Semifinalist: Federer

Second Quarter
This Olympics is all about David Ferrer so far. Not only does he get promoted to No. 4, he also has a distinctly manageable draw, at least on paper. Pospisil, Kohlschreiber, Stepanek, Davydenko, Tomic, Nishikori, Simon, Kukushkin, Kubot, Dimitrov, Young and Seppi are the names near him. None is a pushover, especially for Ferrer on grass, but none could be described as a draw killer, either.

There is one looming figure in this section, however; that of Juan Martin del Potro. But Ferrer can’t even be unhappy about seeing the Argentine in his neighborhood. He's straight-setted del Potro the last two times they’ve played, including a routine 3, 2, and 3 fourth-rounder at Wimbledon.

First-round match to watch (maybe, hopefully, possibly not): Tomic-Nishikori

Question mark: Kohlschreiber. He could trouble Ferrer in the second round

Sleeper: Dimitrov. I think I gave him the same status at Wimbledon and he ended up retiring. So how about “Sleeper, as long as finishes his matches.”

Donald Young losing streak watch: He’s up to 14, seven short of the ATP record. He’ll try to snap it against Andreas Seppi.

Semifinalist: Del Potro

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Third Quarter
Andy Murray returns to face the British music again. If he can’t win a major, can he win an Olympic gold? Historically he has had trouble recovering from losses in Grand Slam finals, but at the same time he has shown that, for the most part, he holds up well under the home-court pressure. Murray will have to hold up early; he starts with Stan Wawrinka. The Swiss flag-bearer has four wins over Muzz, and he took him to five sets at Wimbledon in 2009.

Also here is Tomas Berdych, the 2010 Wimbledon finalist, who has a 4-2 career record against Murray. He’s coming off a shocker of a first-round loss, to Ernests Gulbis, at Wimbledon, but his draw looks good—the highest-ranked player near him is Nicolas Almagro.

Possible third-round match to watch: Murray vs. Richard Gasquet

Semifinalist: Berdych

Fourth Quarter
At the bottom we have Novak Djokovic, bronze medalist in Beijing. Let’s hope he has some new shoes ready for Wimbledon this time—he never seemed to get his feet under him on his way out of Wimbledon a few weeks ago. Looking at his draw, he’ll need to be steadier from the start. Djokovic will likely play Andy Roddick in the second round; Hewitt or Cilic might await in the third; and Tsonga or Raonic are possible quarterfinal match-ups. Tsonga, a semifinalist at Wimbledon who has a 6-6 career record against Djokovic, is someone to watch out for in particular. He likes grass, and the quicker matches at the Olympics could suit his in-and-out attention span better than three of five. But Jo has a tricky start against Thomaz Bellucci, a lefty who is coming off a tournament win in Gstaad, and who gave Nadal trouble at Wimbledon.

Question Mark (demoted from his traditional “dangerous floater” status after his lackluster Wimbledon showing): Milos Raonic

First-round matches to watch: Tsonga vs. Bellucci; David Goffin vs. Juan Monaco

Sleeper: Roddick

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Semifinals: Federer d. del Potro; Djokovic d. Berdych

Bronze-medal match: Berdych d. del Potro

Gold-medal match: Federer d. Djokovic