Getting Things Finalized

We’ve seen a lot on the WTA tour this season: New and old stars rising, friendships beginning and ending, comebacks, upsets, blowouts, viral dances, victory dances, and beatdowns of epic proportions. But did you ever expect to catch Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova giggling in the corner together, having a chat that one of the them described as “not PG-13,” and the other called a “what was I thinking” moment? That’s what the tour’s two biggest stars were doing during the draw ceremony at the WTA Championships in Istanbul on Sunday.

Have we truly seen it all now? Not quite: There’s one more week to go for the women, and judging by how the draw turned out, it should be a good one. By most measures, this has been a successful WTA season; its year-ender, with Serena, Vika, Maria and rest of the top eight in tow, appears set to do it justice. Here’s a look at Istanbul’s two round robin groups and how they may play out during this weeklong, $4.9 million event. One thing you can already say about the tournament: It’s a showcase for tennis’s ever-widening diversity and international scope. For the first time, each of the eight players hails from a different country.

Red Group: Victoria Azarenka, Serena Williams, Angelique Kerber, Li Na

Victoria Azarenka

Head to head in group: 1-10 vs. Williams; 2-0 vs. Kerber; 4-4 vs. Li

The world No. 1 has said she wants to play Serena “every day,” because that’s how she’ll get better. She may get her wish twice in Istanbul. This is a tough section for Vika, who has obviously struggled against Serena, and is only .500 against Li. But she say she’s “looking forward to the challenge,” and why shouldn’t she be?  She has been virtually unbeatable on hard courts this season, and she seems to be ending the year the way she began it: On a roll. Azarenka, who reached the final in Istanbul last year, hasn’t lost a set in 13 matches since the U.S. Open.

Serena Williams

Head to head in group: 10-1 vs. Azarenka; 1-1 vs. Kerber; 5-1 vs. Li

Serena, by contrast, hasn’t played a match since beating Azarenka in the Open final, and when she tweeted about having food poisoning recently, I suspected she might not play any at all. But she’s in Istanbul, and even if she’s rusty, her head-to-head record against her fellow Red Groupers—16-3—speaks for itself. As she says, she “doesn’t really care who I play or when I can play...I’m on the red side with Victoria, so it’ll be good.”

Good for whom, exactly?

Angelique Kerber

Head to head in group: 0-2 vs. Azarenka; 1-1 vs. Williams; 1-5 vs. Li

Kerber is this group’s newcomer to the season-ending party, and if nothing else she says her appearance feels like a reward for a very busy career year. The German finished 2011 ranked No. 32; 12 months, 60 wins, two titles, and a Wimbledon semifinal later, she’s No. 5. “It’s an honor for me to be here,” Kerber says. “It’s a bonus after such a great year.”

Is she finally running out of steam? Kerber is just 4-2 since the Open, and her combined 2-8 record in her group won’t give her a lot of confidence. But Kerber has made a specialty out of defying expectations, and she did beat (an admittedly disinterested) Serena in Cincy this summer. Hopefully, for Kerber’s sake, Serena has forgotten all about that one.

Li Na

Head to head in group: 4-4 vs. Azarenka; 1-5 vs. Williams; 5-1 vs. Kerber

With a .500 record against her round-robin opponents, Li is the Red Group’s proverbial wild card. She’s strong enough to beat anyone, and inconsistent enough to lose to anyone; that’s true not just from match to match, but from set to set as well. With help from new coach Carlos Rodriguez, though, Li should be able to moderate her swings in quality over time. While her 2012 couldn’t match her breakthrough 2011—she eked into the eighth spot here—Li has been more consistent overall and has had a better second half. Her match with Vika should be the crucial one for this group.

Semifinalists: S. Williams, Azarenka

White Group: Maria Sharapova, Agnieszka Radwanska, Petra Kvitova, Sara Errani

Maria Sharapova

Head to head in group: 7-2 vs. Radwanska; 4-2 v. Kvitova; 1-0 vs. Errani

Like Kerber, Sharapova has had a long, busy, mostly successful 2012. Strangely, her three titles all came on clay (Stuttgart, Rome, Paris), but she’s suffered few bad losses and doesn’t appear to be finishing on fumes—Sharapova reached the final of the Premier event in Beijing earlier this month. Best of all for Maria, she won’t have to face her dual nemeses, Serena and Azarenka, in round-robin play. Instead, she’ll take a 12-4 collective career record into the White Group.

Agnieszka Radwanska

Head to head in group: 2-7 vs. Sharapova; 0-3 vs. Kvitova; 5-1 vs. Errani

Every season is a long one for hard-working Aga. Her first half of 2012 was the best of her career, and included a title in Key Biscayne and a runner-up finish at Wimbledon. By the U.S. Open, it looked like she might be ready to fade—she lost early, and listlessly, to Roberta Vinci—but she has righted the ship with a 6-2 record this fall. Still, it will require some extra effort for her to keep it going into the semis. The crafty Pole will likely need to beat either Sharapova or Kvitova, both of whom have overpowered her in the past.

Petra Kvitova

Head to head in group: 2-4 vs. Sharapova; 3-0 vs. Radwanska; 3-0 vs. Errani

Remember Istanbul last year, when Kvitova plowed her way to a 5-0 record and had all of us gushing that we had just seen the future of women’s tennis? Hasn’t quite worked out that way so far. Kvitova is currently ranked No. 6 and has had a mixed bag of a 2012 season, due in large part to one of the women in her group here, Maria Sharapova, who foiled her in the semifinals at the Australian Open and French Open. Kvitova is also just 2-3 since her early loss to Marion Bartoli at the U.S. Open. But Petra is always dangerous indoors, she can still bomb with anyone, she’s never lost to Radwanska or Errani, and Sharapova won’t be able to foil her every time.

Sara Errani

Head to head in group: 0-1 vs. Sharapova; 1-5 vs. Radwanska; 0-3 vs. Kvitova

“It’s amazing for me to be here,” says the White Group’s surprise entrant, who is also in the doubles draw. Errani has made an even bigger surge than Kerber in 2012; the 25-year-old Italian finished last season ranked No. 45, and has now cracked the elite eight. But she’s also the biggest long shot to reach the semifinals. She comes in with a career 1-9 record against her fellow group members, and Istanbul’s indoor hard courts wouldn’t seem to be the best fit for this clay-loving baseliner. But that won’t faze Errani; she’ll go out and try whatever she can to win. It’s gotten her this far.

Semifinalists: Sharapova, Kvitova

Finalists: S. Williams vs. Azarenka

Champion: Serena Williams