by Pete Bodo
Some of you know I always get disgruntled when I'm forced to handicap and predict the outcome of tournaments. You know how it is—you can divide the world into people who can do math and those who can't (count me in the latter category), and you can divide us into those who enjoy making predictions and those who eschew the practice.
Here's my main objection to the habit: If you pick the logical favorite and he wins, you earn nothing more than a yawn. If you take a flyer and choose someone off the wall, and he wins, you look like a genius. Those of you who picked Thomas Johansson to win the Australian Open of 2002 will know exactly what I mean. If you existed.
The strange thing about looking like a genius is, the 50 times you picked a schumck to win Indian Wells or the French Open (who was crushed like a bug in the third round by an Ivan Ljubicic or David Ferrer) don't seem to matter. You only need to be right once in this game. Just ask Mr. "Ivan Ljubicic will win Indian Wells in 2010."
So if you're crafty or just plain smart, you'll approach this business as if it were a game of roulette, or a guessing game. Full disclosure: I'm still dining out on my prediction that Andres Gomez would beat Andre Agassi in the 1990 Roland Garros final (you can ask drive-by tennis journalist and author John Feinstein about that one). What did I know that most other pundits did not? Absolutely nothing. I just had a gut feeling Gomez would win. But don't think I haven't been tempted to write a book explaining how I figured out that Agassi had no shot against the 30-year old Ecuadorian.
So once again I was obliged to pick the winners at Indian Wells, which has just started. So this morning I'm going to protest the demand in a more resounding way. I'm going to protest by doing a parallel universe version of handicapping. In fact, I think I'll call it handicrapping. It all starts with the big question: Who's going to crap out at Indian Wells? Who will get whacked much earlier than anyone expects and bust up his rackets in the locker room, or end up wishing he or she had entered the doubles?
Here are my ATP picks. I'll cover the women tomorrow:
Roger Federer (No. 2): I know, I know. Sacrilege! But if Kei Nishikori survives Igor Andreev, I can see him taking out Federer. Nishikori is just 21 and coming back from injury, so he's got plenty of motivation and ought to be fit. He's already proven that he's hard-nosed beyond his years, and is tough enough to hang in through long matches. And he's played pretty well thus far this year.
Nishikori made the semis at Delray last week before losing to Janko Tipsarevic. Given Federer's priorities and the number of miles on his odometer, he's about due to suffer one of those ground-shaking losses—and calling this one right would probably be enough to get me a congratulatory phone call from Uri Geller.
Federer won his first major at Wimbledon in 2003. Since then, he hasn't lost in the first round of a major or Masters event since Cincinnati of 2004. Technically, this will be a second-round match because of Federer's bye, but in our hearts we know the truth.
Actually, I can see any number of guys in Federer's eighth of the draw giving him trouble: Mardy Fish (a former runner-up at Indian Wells), or two guys who will still be all puffed up from their Davis Cup heroics, Philipp Petzschner and Jeremy Chardy. And hot prospect Milos Raonic is in that eigthth also, although he'd have to get by Fish in the second round. That one promises to be an interesting match.
Stanislas Wawrinka (No. 12): His first match is likely to be against the rapidly sliding Nikolay Davydenko, who's done something Wawrinka has not—won a Masters 1000 event, on hard court. In fact, the diminutive Russian has won three hard-court Masters events, and while he's had his share of injury and confidence problems, I don't believe the little guy will go quietly into the night.
Frankly, I'm surprised that Davydenko's ranking has sunk so low (No. 42); let's remember, it was just weeks ago that he Kolya the Obscure was battling the Mighty Fed in the Doha final. Here, Davydenko isn't even seeded. But remember that guys who have been there, in the late stages of big events, always tend to make a run or two after their use-by date has expired.
Wawrinka has lost to players ranked well below him (he's presently No. 14) in his last two tournaments, Juan Ignacio Chela (Buenos Aires) and Alexandr Dolgopolov (Acapulco), and he's struggled through three-setters against guys like Fabulous Fabio Fognini and Carlos Berlocq. I say Davydenko, who won the only other time they played, takes him out.
Marin Cilic (No. 17): What the hail, let's stick with our man Davydenko. Besides, it's still dump-on-Marin-Cilic month here at TennisWorld. Back-to-back wins over Wawrinka and puzzlingly inconsistent Cilic are not out of the question when you look at Davydenko's track record. Cilic is 3-1 up on Davydenko, but Kolya won the last time they played.
I'd better let it go when it comes to this Davydenko theme, before I start calling for him to go all the way to the final, in which case this would morph into yet another exercise in mere...handicapping.
Andy Roddick (No. 8): Last year, Roddick was in the final at Indian Wells and he won Miami. That's what you call a tough act to follow, and although Roddick has played pretty well this year, he'll be under pressure to defend all those points.
Granted, Roddick won Memphis in his last tournament outing, and he clinched a Davis Cup for the USA for the 12th time in his career just a week ago. But I get a bad feeling for Andy this week for an odd reason—he may have to play two of his American buddies (and current and former Davis Cup teammates) in the first two rounds. Of course, struggling James Blake would have to beat Aussie qualifier Chris Guccione to meet Roddick, and that's no gimme. But Isner ought to have little trouble with his first round opponent, Brazil's Ricardo Mello.
Roddick is 2-1 against Isner, but the last two matches both went to three sets and Isner won the big one, in the third round of the 2009 U.S. Open. If Isner serves well, the match will be decided by tiebreakers (hail, it will be decided by 'breakers even if Isner and Roddick both serve like dog poop), and can there be any more of a pick 'em than a tiebreaker between Roddick and Isner?
!Baggy Marcos Baghdatis (No. 19): Baghdatis is out of the Top 20 now, so you couldn't exactly call it a shocking upset if he loses to two-time NCAA champ Somdev Devvarman, who acquited himself admirably in last weekend's Davis Cup tie against Serbia. Devvarman (and yes, that's two "v's" and not one "w") would have to get by France's Adrian Mannarino to get a crack at Marcos, but that's doable. Fans holding out for a Baghdatis return to the Top 10 can move to the left, please, and those waiting for the David Nalbandian resurgence can stay to the right.
Fernando Verdasco (No. 9): It's been a pretty rough winter for the 'Nando, what with 20-year old Canadian newcomer Milos Raonic tagging him in back-to-back events. And then he goes and loses in the first round of Acapulco in his last tournament.
To add insult to injury, Verdasco now has to meet another prodigy in wild card Richard Berankis. The 20-year from Lithuania is probably itching to make a little noise of his own, so if he gets by qualifier Alex Bogomolov Jr., he's likely to look at the draw and say, "If Milos can do it—and twice—I can too!"
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (No. 15): The big Frenchman has been out with injury since mid-February, and Xavier Malisse, who needs to keep this late-career reawakening on track, has a winnable match against Italy's Flavio Cipolla. I say Malisse gets the W and then takes advantage of the fact that Tsonga has no feeling for his game (the two have never played each other), pulling off the upset.
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Tomorrow, we'll handicrap the WTA. Stick around.