PARIS—There were a few close calls along the way, but we're going to get the French Open showdown we’ve talked about all spring: Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal, No. 1 vs. No. 2, each in his own historical duel with one of the game's legends. If Djokovic wins, he becomes the first man since Rod Laver to own all four Grand Slam titles at once. If Nadal wins, he passes Bjorn Borg as the all-time men’s champion at Roland Garros, with seven titles. Pretty decent, and daunting, company either way.
Even before the match is over, though, these two will make history: No pair of men in the Open era has played the finals of four straight Grand Slams. Djokovic has won the other three, which means that there’s something on the line for the future here as well. If Nadal wins, this becomes a true rivalry; if Djokovic wins, he extends his dominance.
Which only makes it that much stranger that virtually no one is giving Djokovic, the man who has dominated the last 18 months of tennis, much of a chance to win. As it always does during the clay season, the momentum has shifted in Nadal’s favor. Let’s see where the terms of the debate are the day before the final, and which factors might play a significant role in the outcome.
Weather
There’s currently a 90 percent chance of rain both Sunday and Monday in Paris. Essentially, that means that it will rain at some point each day, but it doesn't mean it will last. There was rain predicted for last year’s men’s final, and it finished on time; and there was more rain expected over the last two weeks than actually fell. There should be enough time to finish the match in one day, though if it goes more than three sets, who knows how long these two might take.
Who will the weather affect more? Both are used to wind, to rain, to delays. Nadal didn’t handle a wind-delayed semi against Roger Federer at Indian Wells too well, but he survived their broken-up Wimbledon final of 2008 and he played exceptionally well in a strong breeze on Friday. As for Djokovic, those winning shots he came up with to save match points against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarters were hit in the rain.
As far as who's better in heavy conditions, neither of them minds grinding tennis, but Djokovic struggled to get the ball through the court on a dark day against Tsonga. Nadal doesn't seem to mind any type of weather here.
Form
This one unquestionably goes to Nadal. He hasn’t lost a set, has dropped serve just once, and he made David Ferrer look like a second-tier junior yesterday. He’s playing as well or better than he did in 2008, and everyone knows what he did to Federer in the final that year. There’s a chance Rafa could do something similar to Djokovic on Sunday. A lot of people will be surprised if he doesn’t.
A few words of caution along these lines. At Wimbledon last year, Nadal ripped through Andy Murray in the semis so convincingly that many people, myself included, picked him to beat Novak in the final, despite the fact that Djokovic had beaten him four times that spring. And in Australia this year, Djokovic was never in top form, yet he won the tournament. The difference, of course, is that this is clay, and this is Roland Garros—and that is a big difference.
!NdNerves
The weirdest aspect of this match is the psychological one. The player with a chance to do something that no man has done in 43 years—win four consecutive majors—is the one who should begin by feeling as if he has nothing to lose. Djokovic has beaten Nadal seven of the last nine times they’ve played, and in the last three Grand Slam finals, but as I said, few expect him to win. Even after losing to Nole in straights yesterday, Federer called Nadal “the overwhelming favorite” in the final. This should keep Djokovic from being anxious early; but having nothing to lose doesn’t last forever. If Djokovic does get a lead, and glimpses the final line, tightness could set in.
Yesterday, Djokovic acknowledged his underdog status. He called Nadal the favorite, said that it would be a "big challenge" to play his first Roland Garros final against someone who has already won six of them, and admitted that he couldn't afford to have the type of lull he had early in the second set against Federer in the semis.
Nadal, in a departure, has accepted his role as the favorite—within limits. Told about Federer's comments today, he said, "Eliminate the words 'big favorite.' You can keep favorite if you want."
Rafa has played with the pressure of being the overwhelming favorite here for seven years now, and he’s only succumbed to it once, to Robin Soderling in 2009, and that was less about nerves than it was a hot opponent. Rafa always has everything to lose here, and he almost never does.
Match Dynamics
Nadal beat Djokovic the last two times they played on clay, in two different ways. In Monte Carlo he served extremely well, was assertive with his forehand, and got the ball high to Novak’s backhand. In Rome, Rafa didn’t serve as well but defended brilliantly. While Djokovic lost that match in straight sets, he can take heart from he fact that he was able to be aggressive and get a look at his shots. He just missed a few of them that he wasn’t missing last year.
So far at this event, though, Nadal has played at a higher level than he did in Rome. He’s looked comfortable defending and attacking, and his serve has been almost unbreakable. Today he was fairly specific in what he thought were the keys to the match from his side:
"You want to be aggressive, you want to change the rhythm," Nadal said. "You want to make him uncomfortable. You want to be able to defend with very deep balls. You want to have a very good serve, fast serve, and I guess the rest will follow."
Rafa says he won't be looking for a "magic recipe" for beating Nole. "The key to win this match," he concluded, "is just one: It's playing well. It's the only way you can win a match."
Form can change from one day to the next, but the last two times Nadal came to the final here without having dropped a set, 2008 and 2010, he suffered no dip and marched through each final in straights. In a way, though, that gives Djokovic an opportunity. The presumption is that this will be a one-way match and another victory march for Nadal. If Novak can steal one of the first two sets, the dynamic will change, Rafa's air of invincibility will at least temporarily disappear, and unlike in his finals in ’08 and ’10, he won’t be able to play the front-runner’s role that he’s so accustomed to playing here.
Still: Nadal in four