Hot. . . Or Not? (ATP Contenders)

by Pete Bodo

Sheesh. I thought we just cleared up how the Hot. . .Or Not? format works. But the reactions to the WTA Top 10 ratings demonstrated that some readers still don't understand the approach. So let me reiterate it before we rate a number of the men's contenders who are outside the Top 10 (whom we covered the other day).

Each player is assigned one to five chili peppers to denote his or her degree of "hotness." This rating is relative, not comparative. In other words, just because two players have the same rating, it doesn't mean they have an equal chance to win the tournament, or are competing at the same level. It's just an attempt to quantify the state of each individual's game at this moment in time as the first major of the year looms.

So let's take a look at some of the other male contenders, cherry-picking our candidates from No. 11 on down. Keep in mind that we're focusing on the men who have played in this new year, and who have reason to be hopeful (or not) Down Under:

No. 11 Juan Martin del Potro

by Pete Bodo

Sheesh. I thought we just cleared up how the Hot. . .Or Not? format works. But the reactions to the WTA Top 10 ratings demonstrated that some readers still don't understand the approach. So let me reiterate it before we rate a number of the men's contenders who are outside the Top 10 (whom we covered the other day).

Each player is assigned one to five chili peppers to denote his or her degree of "hotness." This rating is relative, not comparative. In other words, just because two players have the same rating, it doesn't mean they have an equal chance to win the tournament, or are competing at the same level. It's just an attempt to quantify the state of each individual's game at this moment in time as the first major of the year looms.

So let's take a look at some of the other male contenders, cherry-picking our candidates from No. 11 on down. Keep in mind that we're focusing on the men who have played in this new year, and who have reason to be hopeful (or not) Down Under:

No. 11 Juan Martin del Potro

I'd love to cut the big man a break and give him another pepper, even if it's just as a show of faith and confidence. But that wouldn't really be fair, even if we take into account that by his own declaration, last year was a 12-month readjustment project following the wrist injury (and surgery) that sidelined him for most of 2010.

But del Potro just lost to Marcos Baghdatis in the third round of Sydney—a bad omen given that Baghdatis also put del Potro out of last year's Australian Open in the second round. I can't really put my finger on the problem, but del Potro seems to have lost much of the steam he appeared to be building up in the first half of last year (his best result at a major was his fourth-round, four-set loss to Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon). Although he played reasonably well in the Davis Cup final in December, he didn't win either match (a five-setter with David Ferrer and a four-setter with Nadal). It just seems like he's been adrift in recent months, and you have to wonder if he wouldn't have benefited from starting his year a week earlier.

No. 14 Alexandr Dolgopolov

The Dog made the final of Brisbane (l. to Andy Murray) in his only outing thus far this year, but lost badly partly because he suffered a groin injury in his semifinal win over Gilles Simon. You gotta love a guy who apologized to the crowd for mustering only "some boring tennis today." Volatile and streaky, this 23-year-old Ukranian leaped into the limelight at last year's Australian Open, where he put up back-to-back wins over, respectively, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Robin Soderling. Finalist Murray eventually stopped his run in the quarters. There's no back-up in this mercurial, free-swinging shotmaker. He's busy making the most of his talent and could be a factor Down Under if his groin injury heals in time.

No. 15 Gael Monfils

Monfils is healthy, and I like that he's been out there playing. He had a good tournament in Doha, where he made the final before succumbing to his countryman, Tsonga. Monfils lost to Aussie wunderkind Bernard Tomic in the Kooyong exhibition event, but that match went to a third-set tiebreaker. Gael was wildly inconsistent late last year, and it doesn't help that you can't count on him to play his best and most aggressive tennis in big matches. But he's playing well, and we all believe people can change, right?

No. 17 John Isner

Long John won his first title as a pro at Auckland in 2010, but he lost in the second round in 2011 and his return to Australian this year was anything but triumphant. Seeded No. 2 at Sydney (ed. note: corrected from original post), Isner squandered some of the momentum he built up with an excellent fall campaign as he lost his first match (after a bye) to journeyman Bobby Reynolds.

No. 25 Milos Raonic

The hard-serving 21-year-old won the title in his first outing this year (beating top seed Janko Tipsarevic in final of Chennai), but then pulled out of this week's glitzy exhibition at Kooyong after losing his first match to Mardy Fish. Raonic apparently had a stomach bug. The Canadian will bring a good deal of momentum—and happy memories—to the tournament where he leaped to stardom last year. At the 2011 Australian Open, he qualified and went all the way to the fourth round (l. to Ferrer).

No. 37 Bernard Tomic

The new year is off to a great start for Bernard Tomic. First, he gets to the semis at Brisbane. Then he gets a ringing endorsement from John McEnroe, who said Tomic "has more up-side than any other guy I see out there." Darren Cahill then told Melbourne's The Age that Tomic's fitness and recovery abilities are much improved. And, in recent days, Tomic put up back-to-back wins over ATP No. 7 Tomas Berdych and Monfils at the Kooyong exhibition, and will meet either Fish or Jurgen Melzer in the final.

No. 43 Marcos Baghdatis

Sure, his ranking has plummeted and he seemed to get lost in the funhouse not long after he reached the Australian Open final in 2006 (l. to Roger Federer). And on a number of occasions, he's raised hopes that he might recapture his Top 10 form, only to dash them. But "Baggy" just beat del Potro at Sydney, and in the quarterfinals at Brisbane he was taken out by the eventual champ, Murray. He could cause a lot of trouble in Melbourne, even if he doesn't win the tournament.

I'd love to cut the big man a break and give him another pepper, even if it's just as a show of faith and confidence. But that wouldn't really be fair, even if we take into account that by his own declaration, last year was a 12-month readjustment project following the wrist injury (and surgery) that sidelined him for most of 2010.

But del Potro just lost to Marcos Baghdatis in the third round of Sydney—a bad omen given that Baghdatis also put del Potro out of last year's Australian Open in the second round. I can't really put my finger on the problem, but del Potro seems to have lost much of the steam he appeared to be building up in the first half of last year (his best result at a major was his fourth-round, four-set loss to Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon). Although he played reasonably well in the Davis Cup final in December, he didn't win either match (a five-setter with David Ferrer and a four-setter with Nadal). It just seems like he's been adrift in recent months, and you have to wonder if he wouldn't have benefited from starting his year a week earlier.

No. 14 Alexandr Dolgopolov

The Dog made the final of Brisbane (l. to Andy Murray) in his only outing thus far this year, but lost badly partly because he suffered a groin injury in his semifinal win over Gilles Simon. You gotta love a guy who apologized to the crowd for mustering only "some boring tennis today." Volatile and streaky, this 23-year-old Ukranian leaped into the limelight at last year's Australian Open, where he put up back-to-back wins over, respectively, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Robin Soderling. Finalist Murray eventually stopped his run in the quarters. There's no back-up in this mercurial, free-swinging shotmaker. He's busy making the most of his talent and could be a factor Down Under if his groin injury heals in time.

No. 15 Gael Monfils

Monfils is healthy, and I like that he's been out there playing. He had a good tournament in Doha, where he made the final before succumbing to his countryman, Tsonga. Monfils lost to Aussie wunderkind Bernard Tomic in the Kooyong exhibition event, but that match went to a third-set tiebreaker. Gael was wildly inconsistent late last year, and it doesn't help that you can't count on him to play his best and most aggressive tennis in big matches. But he's playing well, and we all believe people can change, right?

No. 17 John Isner

Long John won his first title as a pro at Auckland in 2010, but he lost in the second round in 2011 and his return to Australian this year was anything but triumphant. Seeded No. 2 at Sydney (ed. note: corrected from original post), Isner squandered some of the momentum he built up with an excellent fall campaign as he lost his first match (after a bye) to journeyman Bobby Reynolds.

No. 25 Milos Raonic

The hard-serving 21-year-old won the title in his first outing this year (beating top seed Janko Tipsarevic in final of Chennai), but then pulled out of this week's glitzy exhibition at Kooyong after losing his first match to Mardy Fish. Raonic apparently had a stomach bug. The Canadian will bring a good deal of momentum—and happy memories—to the tournament where he leaped to stardom last year. At the 2011 Australian Open, he qualified and went all the way to the fourth round (l. to Ferrer).

No. 37 Bernard Tomic

The new year is off to a great start for Bernard Tomic. First, he gets to the semis at Brisbane. Then he gets a ringing endorsement from John McEnroe, who said Tomic "has more up-side than any other guy I see out there." Darren Cahill then told Melbourne's The Age that Tomic's fitness and recovery abilities are much improved. And, in recent days, Tomic put up back-to-back wins over ATP No. 7 Tomas Berdych and Monfils at the Kooyong exhibition, and will meet either Fish or Jurgen Melzer in the final.

No. 43 Marcos Baghdatis

Sure, his ranking has plummeted and he seemed to get lost in the funhouse not long after he reached the Australian Open final in 2006 (l. to Roger Federer). And on a number of occasions, he's raised hopes that he might recapture his Top 10 form, only to dash them. But "Baggy" just beat del Potro at Sydney, and in the quarterfinals at Brisbane he was taken out by the eventual champ, Murray. He could cause a lot of trouble in Melbourne, even if he doesn't win the tournament.