Hot. . . Or Not (WTA Contenders)

* !Pic2by Pete Bodo*

Here's the fourth and final installment of our Hot. . . Or Not? Grand Slam preview—a drill that's going to be much easier on the eve of the other three Grand Slam events, simply because the players will have much more of a recent record to draw upon.

At this point, it just doesn't feel right to put too much weight on the events of the fall of 2011, although they have to be taken into account. It's not like the break in the calendar is so long that any of these pros forgot how to hit a backhand, right?

Anyway, let me add the requisite PSA before I rate some of the WTA contenders who are outside the Top 10.

Each player is assigned one to five chili peppers to denote his or her degree of "hotness"—a measure of how well the player seems to be playing at the moment, and how much of a threat she appears to embody. This rating is relative, not comparative. In other words, just because two players have the same rating, it doesn't mean they have an equal chance to win the tournament, or are competing at the same level. It's just an attempt to quantify the state of each individual's game at this moment in time, as the first major of the year looms. In a way, they are being measured against themselves.

What does it say about the WTA game that the first four "contenders" ranked below No. 10 are all either Grand Slam champions or former No. 1 players—or both? Can it be that in a competition, the WTA's second 10 would beat the present Top 10? It sure looks like that could happen. So let's get on with it:

No. 11 Francesca Schiavone

Schiavone ran into a buzzsaw in Brisbane, losing in the semis to the woman who ran the table in stunning fashion, Kaia Kanepi. Schiavone beat former No. 1 Jelena Jankovic at that tournament, although Jankovic's main role these days seems to be that of reputation booster for her rivals. In Sydney this last week, Schiavone drew No. 5 seed and U.S. Open champ Sam Stosur and knocked her out. But she lost to Daniela Hantuchova in the next round. Age is against Schiavone (she is 31), and probably accounts for her inconsistency, but the courts in Australia favor her spin and she remains dangerous.

No. 12 Kim Clijsters

Let's be frank, the data is woefully thin. Clijsters has played just one tournament since last summer in Toronto, and that was at Brisbane, where she won three matches but showed vulnerability when she was forced to three sets by Ana Ivanovic. Ultimately, Clijsters quit in the fourth round with a bad hip while trailing Hantuchova by a set and a break. Between the tender hip (Clijsters has serial injuries, which doesn't bode well) and lack of match play, it's hard to imagine Clijsters dictating the way she can at her best.

No. 13 Serena Williams

Sure, she can go out there and win the whole shooting match and surprise absolutely no one. But you can almost duplicate, verbatim, the paragraph above this one to sum up Serena's situation. That's ironic, given the way Serena has towered for years over Clijsters—and everyone else—as a competitor. In her only appearance this year, Serena played commanding tennis against two opponents at Brisbane (both straight set wins), but she rolled an ankle and had to withdraw. Wither, Serena? Quien sabe?

No. 14 Jelena Jankovic

While losing to Schiavone (in Brisbane) and Victoria Azarenka (in the second round of Sydney) is nothing to be ashamed of, the fact is that Jankovic has become a punching bag. Two of her last three losses in 2011 were to No. 54 Tamira Paszek (first round, Beijing) and No. 175 Ekatarina Ivanova (Moscow), and she seems to be on a slow but inevitable downward slide. I believe she can reverse that, but we can't give her more peppers until we see signs of a real turnaround.

No. 15 Sabine Lisicki

After winning two matches in Auckland and leading against Angelique Kerber in the third round, Lisicki abandoned the match because of an abdominal strain that threatens her ability to compete at her best at the Australian Open. She spent a good portion of last year recovering from injury and vaulted right back into contention. We know that all she really wants to do is remain healthy and play as much as she wisely can. Her attitude earns her an extra pepper, because it can count for a lot—as can that big serve of hers, should she be over her injury for the tournament.

No. 16 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (none)

A youngsters with loads of talent, she's off to a really slow start this year, taking losses to Kanepi (2r, Brisbane) and Andrea Petkovic (1r, Sydney). Although Kanepi hammered on everyone that week and Petkovic is a Top 10 player, Pavlyuchenkova won a grand total of just eight games in those two losses, and even her lone win of the year gets an asterisk—Polona Hercog retired midway through the second set of their first-round match in Brisbane, although Pavlyuchenkova had a comfortable lead.

No. 19 Svetlana Kuznetsova

Kuznetsova has played hide-and-seek before, and it's foolish to discount her chances because she's a very talented mutliple Grand Slam winner. She seems dedicated to regaining a place near the top, and has re-hired one of her past coaches, Olga Morozova. She got off to a good start in Auckland, losing a tight three-set semifinal to China's Jie Zheng. In the first round at Sydney, she blew away No. 6 seed Vera Zvonareva, but had to retire with heat illness in the next round against Lucie Safarova.

No. 21 Daniela Hantuchova

Another gifted player who has more or less disappeared for long stretches, Hantuchova seems to be playing well again. When she's hot, watch out—just ask Caroline Wozniacki, who was belted off the court with ease by Hantuchova in the fourth round of last year's French Open. The only reason Hantuchova doesn't get the maximum five peppers is because when she finally did lose in her two tournaments this year, she was crushed. Kanepi allowed her just three games in the Brisbane final, and Kvitova beat her 6-0, 6-4 in the third round of Sydney.

No. 26 Kaia Kanepi

Kanepi just went to town on everyone in Brisbane after she struggled for over two hours to overcome No. 121 Alexandra Panova in the first round. Her power was overwhelming, her accuracy pinpoint. She was, as they say, in the zone—for an entire week, against a succession of opponents that included top-tenner Petkovic and Grand Slam champion Schiavone. It was just the second career singles title for the 26-year-old Estonian. I'm not sure how wise it was for Kanepi to lay low for the past few weeks; why not roll the die when you're in the zone? But she's certainly given her rivals a lot to think about this upcoming week.