How Carlos Alcaraz, Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas can finish the year at No. 1

There are three men with a chance at year-end No. 1 on the ATP rankings this year—Carlos Alcaraz, Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas—and it all comes down to what happens at the ATP Finals.

Right now Alcaraz is the frontrunner with 6,820 points on his ranking, with Nadal and Tsitsipas a ways behind at 5,820 and 5,350.

But with Alcaraz not playing the ATP Finals due to an abdominal injury, both the Spaniard and the Greek can pass him.

HOW NADAL CAN GET TO YEAR-END NO. 1 AT THE ATP FINALS:
~ By winning the title, regardless of whether he loses one or even two of his round robin matches [1,100, 1,300 or 1,500 points]
~ By reaching the final with a 3-0 round robin record [1,000 points] and Tsitsipas not winning the title with a 3-0 round robin record

HOW TSITSIPAS CAN GET TO YEAR-END NO. 1 AT THE ATP FINALS:
~ By winning the title with a perfect round robin record [1,500 points]

If none of the above scenarios happen, Alcaraz is year-end No. 1.

It’s worth noting that the reason Nadal can be year-end No. 1 if he reaches the final with a perfect round robin record is because in the event of a tie between the two Spaniards at 6,820 points, the tie-break is who has the most total points combined from Grand Slams, mandatory Masters 1000s and the ATP Finals, and at that point Nadal would be well clear of Alcaraz, 6,070 to 5,180.

Nadal and Tsitsipas are in different groups in Turin. If Nadal loses one (or two) of his round robin matches, he can still become year-end No. 1 by going on to win the title. If Tsitsipas loses even one of his round robin matches, he’s out of contention for the top spot.

If Nadal and Tsitsipas both make the final undefeated, then the winner of the final will be year-end No. 1. The last time the final of the ATP Finals was a battle for No. 1 was in 2016—Andy Murray defeated Novak Djokovic in the final that year for the season-ending honor.

Should Tsitsipas come through, he would be the the first year-end No. 1 to not win a major that year since John McEnroe in 1982.