How Iga Swiatek can pass Aryna Sabalenka for year-end No. 1 at the WTA Finals

She has a 630-point gap to make up, but at a tournament with up to 1,500 points up for grabs, it’s definitely possible.

Published Oct 27, 2023

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The battle for year-end WTA No. 1 is down to two players heading into next week’s WTA Finals—Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek, who are currently No. 1 and No. 2 on the WTA rankings.

Sabalenka will go into Cancun with a 630-point lead, 8,425 to 7,795, but with the WTA Finals offering the most ranking points of any tournament on the calendar outside of the Grand Slams—up to 1,500 points for an undefeated winner—it’s not that much of a longshot for Swiatek to pass Sabalenka at the finish line.

It’s still not going to be easy by any means, though.

At a minimum, Swiatek needs to either win the title OR reach the final with a 3-0 round robin record. And those minimum requirements increase as Sabalenka keeps winning.

Here’s how Swiatek can pass Sabalenka, with the assumption that Sabalenka plays all three of her round robin matches:

If Sabalenka goes 0-3 in the RR (round robin)…
… Swiatek needs to reach the final with a 3-0 RR record OR win the title (with any RR record).

If Sabalenka goes 1-2 in the RR and DOESN’T reach the final…
… Swiatek needs to win the title with at least a 1-2 RR record.

If Sabalenka goes 2-1 in the RR and DOESN’T reach the final…
… Swiatek needs to win the title with at least a 2-1 RR record.

If Sabalenka goes 3-0 in the RR and DOESN’T reach the final…
… Swiatek needs to win the title with a 3-0 RR record.

Anything other than those scenarios means Sabalenka keeps No. 1.

Swiatek is the only player within reach of Sabalenka for year-end No. 1 on the WTA rankings.

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Technically, there’s a scenario where a Swiatek-Sabalenka final would determine No. 1, if Swiatek gets there with a 3-0 round robin record and Sabalenka gets there with a 1-2 round robin record—but barring withdrawals and group reshuffling, those round robin records would see the two of them face off in the semifinals.

The points breakdown for the WTA Finals is as follows: a player earns 125 points for every round robin match played and another 125 points for every round robin win; if they advance past the round robin, a semifinal win earns 330 points and a final win 420 points.

So, a player who wins the title undefeated will earn 1,500 points (750 for going 3-0 in the round robin, 330 for winning their semifinal and 420 for winning the final). Only the Grand Slams, where the champion earns 2,000 points, have more points up for grabs.

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