How Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff can pass Iga Swiatek for the No. 2 ranking in Madrid

There may be no battle for No. 1 on the WTA rankings at the moment—with 10,768, current No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka currently has an unreachable ranking point lead of 3,385 over No. 2.

There’s a battle brewing for that No. 2 ranking, though.

The current No. 2, Iga Swiatek, is defending more than half of her ranking points during Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros—4,000 out of 7,383—and with that, her Top 2 status will be under attack.

And that begins in Madrid, where the current No. 3 and No. 4, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff, both have a shot at passing her.

Before going any further, let’s break down how many ranking points Swiatek, Pegula and Gauff each have with last year’s Madrid points taken off (and any replacement tournaments taken off too).

Swiatek comes into this week with 7,383 points on the WTA rankings, but she’s defending 1,000 points for winning Madrid last year, so she’s working with a base total of 6,383 ranking points.

Pegula comes in with 6,208 points, and while she didn’t play Madrid last year due to a rib injury, she’s replacing 30 points from Stuttgart, so she’s working with a base total of 6,178 ranking points.

Gauff comes into this week with 6,073 points, and she’s defending 120 points for reaching the fourth round of Madrid last year, so she’s working with a base total of 5,953 ranking points.

All three players are already through to the third round of Madrid, which earns 65 points, and the points earned for the upcoming rounds are as follows: 120 for fourth round, 215 for quarterfinals, 390 for semifinals, 650 for a final and 1,000 for the title.

So, how can Pegula and Gauff pass Swiatek for No. 2?

First of all, Swiatek needs to lose in Madrid to lose No. 2—if she goes on to win the title, neither Pegula nor Gauff can pass her.

Pegula needs to reach the semifinals just to have a chance at passing her, and the better Swiatek does, that might increase.

Gauff needs to reach the final just to have a chance at passing her, and the better Swiatek does, that minimum might increase, too.

If Swiatek does lose at some point in the Spanish capital, below are the scenarios for what Pegula and Gauff need to do to pass her, and given that the two Americans are on opposite halves of the draw, it's also possible that they both pass her.

IF SWIATEK LOSES IN...

• 3rd Rd, Pegula needs SF and Gauff needs F
• 4th Rd, Pegula needs SF and Gauff needs F
• QFs, Pegula needs F and Gauff needs F
• SFs, Pegula needs F and Gauff needs title

If Swiatek reaches the final, Gauff can’t pass her anymore, and Pegula can only pass her with a title (so beating her in the final).

And if Pegula and Gauff both reach the final, the winner will be No. 2.

Watch this space for all the latest updates on the No. 2 ranking!