How Novak Djokovic and Aryna Sabalenka can take the No. 1 ranking at the US Open

Carlos Alcaraz has been No. 1 on the ATP rankings since June and Iga Swiatek has been No. 1 on the WTA rankings since last April—but both of their reigns are in danger at the US Open this year.

And Alcaraz’s reign is in the most danger.

All Novak Djokovic has to do to return to No. 1 after the US Open is win his opening match on Monday night.

Alcaraz and Djokovic are only separated by 20 ranking points coming into the US Open (9,815 to 9,795). Alcaraz is defending the maximum amount of points possible—2,000—for winning the title last year, so even if he wins the title again, he can’t add any points. Meanwhile, Djokovic didn’t play here last year, so all he needs to do is gain 20 or more points to pass Alcaraz. Reaching the second round at a Grand Slam earns 45 points, which would already be enough to surpass the Spaniard.

Given Djokovic has won his last 66 first-round matches in a row at majors—and given his first-round opponent, France’s Alexandre Muller, has never defeated a Top 10 player, or even a Top 20 player—things are looking good for Djokovic to make it happen.

If the 23-time Grand Slam champion does it, he’ll kick off his record-extending 390th career week at No. 1 on the Monday after the tournament.

Meanwhile, over on the WTA rankings, Aryna Sabalenka is the slight frontrunner to leave the US Open at No. 1.

Coming into the tournament, Swiatek holds a 1,209-point lead over Sabalenka (9,955 to 8,746). But without last year’s points—Swiatek 2,000 for winning the title and Sabalenka 780 for reaching the semifinals, where she fell to Swiatek—it’s actually Sabalenka who’s up by a mere 11 ranking points (7,966 to 7,955).

Long story short, Swiatek actually needs to do one round better than Sabalenka at the US Open to keep No. 1. If the two lose in the same round, Sabalenka will be No. 1… by 11 ranking points.

Sabalenka is trying to become the 29th player to reach No. 1 in WTA rankings history.