Iga Swiatek achieved lift-off in Indian Wells last year. Can she do it again?

In our BNP Paribas Open men’s preview, I talked about how Indian Wells can set the tone for a season. My evidence was Carlos Alcaraz’s run to the semifinals, where he lost to Rafael Nadal in a wind-damaged epic. The evidence is even stronger on the women’s side. Last year, Iga Swiatek began her Indian Wells campaign with three straight three-set wins. But in the round of 16 something clicked, and she went from solid to spectacular in beating Madison Keys 6-0, 6-1. From that point through the French Open final, Swiatek dropped just two more sets.

Now she’s back in the desert as the No. 1 seed, and looking to make her game click again, just in time for the long run up to Roland Garros. Will Swiatek set the tone once more, or will someone else—Aryna Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula, maybe Caroline Gacia—take the reins? Here’s a look ahead at a very stacked draw.

First Quarter

Last month Swiatek had a throwback (to 2022) run of brilliance in Doha and Dubai, before it ended at the hands of Barbora Krejcikova. Judging by her titles in Indian Wells, Miami and at the US Open last year, Swiatek has less trouble transitioning to American courts and conditions than a lot of European players. At the same time, there aren’t many places to hide in a field like this. Swiatek could play 2019 champion Bianca Andreescu in her second match; Beatriz Haddad Maia, who beat her in Canada last summer, in her third match; and Garcia, who beat her in Warsaw last year, in the quarterfinals.

First-round match to watch: Emma Raducanu vs. Danka Kovinic

Potential second-round match to watch: Garcia vs. Danielle Collins

Semifinalist: Swiatek

Second Quarter

Have you wondered where Ons Jabeur has been in 2023? She’s off to an unfortunately slow start. So far she’s just 2-3, and she had to miss the Arabian swing, which is as close to home as it gets for her, with a knee injury. Now the No. 4 seed will try to get back on track in the States, but it might take a tournament or two; last year she lost in the second round in Indian Wells.

But if Jabeur can survive a couple of early rounds, this section gives her a chance to go far. The next three seeds are Daria Kasatkina, Elena Rybakina and Victoria Azarenka—good, obviously, but not unbeatable. Rybakina is returning from a back injury. Can she start to play as well away from the Slams as she does during them? She’ll open against either Sofia Kenin or Sloane Stephens.

Player of Interest: Paula Badosa. She seemed to announce herself when she won Indian Wells in its 2021 fall edition, but she hasn’t done all that much since. This year the Spaniard comes in as the 21st seed.

First-round match to watch: Stephens vs. Kenin

Semifinalist: Azarenka

Third Quarter

Maria Sakkari always puts a lot of pressure on herself to win. But she’ll be under even more pressure this week, as she tries to defend the points she earned as a runner-up last year. The Greek has shown some signs of progress over the past month, but is it enough to send her on a deep run in such a strong field? She’ll start against either Shelby Rogers or Katie Volynets.

Jessica Pegula will face a different sort of pressure than Sakkari. After a second-round exit last year, the No. 3 seed doesn’t have a lot to defend. But this will be her first trip to Indian Wells as the U.S. No. 1, and as the No. 3 player in the world. In her last two defeats, to Swiatek in Doha and Krejcikova in Dubai, Pegula has been sent packing in a 6-0 final set. That’s not a habit any player wants to get into.

First-round matches with Americans to watch: Alycia Parks vs. Anna Kalinskaya; Elizabeth Mandlik vs. Alison Riske-Amritraj; Rogers vs. Volynets

Semifinalist: Pegula

Fourth Quarter

This is an interesting moment for Aryna Sabalenka. She opened the season with 13 straight wins and her first Grand Slam title, before having that streak snapped by Krejcikova in a close one in Doha. Will the world No. 2 be able to pick up where she left off, now that the spell has been broken? Or will she fall back to earth and have to rebuild her confidence all over again?

Sabalenka should hope it’s the former, because she has a strong quarter to try to power her way through. In her second match, she could play Donna Vekic, who won a title in Monterrey last weekend. In her third match, she could face Krejcikova again. In the quarters, she might find herself up against a quality opponent like Belinda Bencic or Coco Gauff.

Semifinalist: Krejcikova

Semifinals: Swiatek d. Azarenka; Pegula d. Krejcikova

Final: Swiatek d. Pegula