Can we really write Iga Swiatek off in Paris? | 2025 Roland Garros women’s preview

In most ways, the women’s draw at Roland Garros doesn’t look much different than it did the last few years. Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff are still at the top of the seedings; last year’s surprise runner-up, Jasmine Paolini, is a not-so-surprising fourth seed now; and last year’s teenage semifinalist, Mirra Andreeva, is now a contender for the crown.

But there’s one big difference, and it’s enough to make this year’s event feel like a whole new world: For the first time since 2021, Iga Swiatek isn’t the favorite, isn’t among the Top 4 seeds, doesn’t have a clay-court title, and isn’t even playing well.

Here’s a look at how Swiatek’s status may change the landscape, and who’s poised to take advantage of it.

Can we really write Iga Swiatek off in Paris?

Things have gone from bad to worse for Swiatek in 2025. She hasn’t won a title, she’s dropped out of the Top 4 for the first time since 2021 and, instead of rounding into form before Roland Garros, she has rounded out of it. Her last two losses, to Coco Gauff in Madrid and Danielle Collins in Rome, represented a total collapse in confidence.

But as Swiatek’s hero, Rafael Nadal, proved in 2015 and 2022, if you love Roland Garros enough, you can win it even without winning any of its tune-up tournaments. If Iga can get two or three wins under her belt, her Chatrier muscle memory might kick in, and her confidence will come with it.

Even then, though, she might need some help. Jelena Ostapenko, a player Swiatek has never beaten, and Elena Rybakina, who has beaten her four times, are potential fourth-round opponents. Rome champion Jasmine Paolini is a potential quarterfinal foe.

Which of the top two seeds, Aryna Sabalenka or Coco Gauff, is more likely to walk away with her first RG title?

On paper, if Swiatek’s slump continues and she’s knocked out early, the favorite spot would go to Sabalenka first, and Gauff second. Both have been sharp for most of the clay swing so far—but not all of it.

Sabalenka is the world’s best player. She’s 34-6 on the year, and has six titles, including Madrid on clay. Despite that, she’s still prone to the odd off day, and still can struggle to stay calm and fight her way out of it. In the past two months, she has lost finals to Mirra Andreeva and Jelena Ostapenko, and suffered her first defeat in seven matches versus Zheng Qinwen.

So Sabalenka isn’t invincible, especially at Roland Garros, where she has never made the final. The question is whether anyone in her quarter can make her sweat, and possibly implode. The most likely candidates would seem to be three hard-hitters that she could face in the third and fourth rounds, Collins, Clara Tauson, and Amanda Anisimova. If she advances past them, she might face Zheng again.

Read more: Sabalenka, Swiatek land in same half of Roland Garros women’s draw

As for Gauff, she’s in the strange position of having reached two straight major clay finals, in Madrid and Rome, while also seeing her level go down as the tournaments progressed. In her last two matches in Rome, she made 137 unforced errors; by the end, even her normally rock-solid backhand was wavering.

Gauff says the upside is that she had success without her best, and she’ll be in good shape if her form comes back in Paris. Her draw makes that scenario possible. Anna Kalinskaya is the first seed she could face, and Madison Keys is the second-highest seed in her section.

One player, potentially, for Coco to watch out for: 2021 champion Barbora Krejcikova, a possible fourth-round opponent.

Mirra Andreeva looked like an RG favorite two months ago. What can we expect from the 18-year-old now?

In February and March, nothing could stop Mirra Andreeva. She won back-to-back 1000s in Dubai and Indian Wells, and beat Swiatek, Sabalenka, Rybakina and everyone else she crossed paths with. Considering that she made the semifinals in Paris last year, it seemed reasonable to believe that the teenager could win the whole thing as soon as this spring.

It still sounds reasonable, but not as likely. That’s because we discovered someone who can stop the game’s latest teen prodigy: Namely, the game last teen prodigy, Gauff. The American beat her with strong forehands and stronger defense in Madrid and Rome, to run her record to 4-0 against the Russian.

Can another player follow Gauff’s lead? Will those defeats hurt Andreeva’s confidence in general? Her draw may allow her to get it back before she potentially faces Gauff in the semis. Jessica Pegula is the top seed in Andreeva’s quarter, and the first seed she could face is No. 32 Yulia Putintseva. Andreeva at 18 is probably too volatile and unpredictable to be called a favorite—“brat mode” is always a couple of shanks away—but she wouldn’t be a surprise champion, either.