Iga Swiatek vs. Liudmila Samsonova: Wimbledon Betting Preview

Don’t look now, but Iga Swiatek’s grass-court record is up to 22-9, including a 9-2 mark over the last 52 weeks. The 24-year-old is really starting to get comfortable on the slick surface, which was evident in her run to the Bad Homburg final a couple of weeks ago. That’s why I ended up suggesting a play on her to win Wimbledon at +800.

On Wednesday, Liudmila Samsonova is one of Swiatek’s remaining obstacles, in the quarterfinals. And while I wouldn’t suggest playing this if you did tail our Swiatek future, I do like the Pole to cover a 3.5-game spread.

Samsonova is the type of player that has troubled Swiatek in the past. She’s a free-swinging ball basher, capable of bullying opponents off the court when she’s not leaking unforced errors. She plays a lot like Jelena Ostapenko and Danielle Collins, who have both had some success against Swiatek—especially recently. Swiatek just doesn’t like to be rushed along the baseline, and that’s especially true on the forehand wing.

The issue is that Samsonova hasn’t had the breakthrough against Swiatek that similar players have. Swiatek is 4-0 in this head-to-head series, and the last three meetings have been complete blowouts. In Dubai, in 2023, Swiatek earned a 6-1, 6-0 win over Samsonova. Later that year, Swiatek beat Samsonova 6-2, 6-2 in Beijing. Then, in the most recent meeting between the two, Swiatek won 6-1, 6-4 when the two played at last year’s US Open.

The difference between Samsonova and some of Swiatek’s other rivals is really just confidence. Ostapenko and Collins go to the court with the belief that they’re going to handle the five-time Grand Slam champion. I’m not sure Samsonova fully trusts herself in this matchup.

Another problem for Samsonova is that Swiatek has gotten some good practice against this archetype over the last few weeks. In Bad Homburg, she earned a tough straight-set win over another aggressive baseliner in Ekaterina Alexandrova. Then, at Wimbledon, Swiatek whooped Collins in the third round, 6-2, 6-3. Doing that, to that opponent, looked cathartic for Swiatek, who followed it up with a 6-4, 6-1 win over Clara Tauson—another big, powerful baseliner.

Swiatek simply should have a good understanding of what she needs to do to beat this opponent. She has had her number in the past, and she just played matches that should have served as great practice for this one. I’m expecting one-way traffic. And even if Samsonova does sneak a close set, I think a lopsided set from Swiatek can be expected. That would help this get over the line.

Pick: Swiatek -3.5 Games (-125)