Imagining a French Open without Rafael Nadal

For a few years there will be a lot of, like, ‘Wow, so this is what Roland Garros is going to be like in the post-Rafael Nadal era.’ Tennis Channel analyst Pam Shriver, trying to imagine what the French Open might look and feel like should 14-time champion Nadal no longer be able to compete.

It isn’t vultures that have been circling high above the head of Nadal, the 36-year old King of Clay. It’s the surgeons and sports medicine specialists, whose physical manipulations and advice in the coming days may determine if we are at the end of an era in which one man has dominated one of the world’s premier sporting events more comprehensively than anyone, in any other major sport.

Nadal has played in 18 consecutive editions of Roland Garros. But in the latest episode of the Spanish star’s serial, late-career injury struggles, a damaged hip that just won’t heal right may prevent him from adding to his startling 112-3 French Open match record. There are players on the ATP and WTA tours who weren’t even born when Nadal first played—and won—in Paris.

Roland Garros without Nadal would be like the Rolling Stones without Mick Jagger. Like a burger without ketchup, or San Francisco without the Golden Gate Bridge. It’s a difficult thing to wrap your mind around. Jimmy Arias, Tennis Channel analyst and Director of Tennis at the IMG Academy, tried to soften the potential blow by reminding me, “Maybe Nadal will never be there again, but that will still leave us [Novak] Djokovic to watch. We’ll see if any of these younger guys can supplant him.”

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Arias went on to make an interesting point: The window is rapidly closing on the opportunity for 30-and-under stars to show that they can match the virtuosity that was produced day-after-day by the “Big Three,” who have collected 64 Grand Slam singles titles (or, to put that another way, 16 years’ worth of major tournaments). Efforts to overcome and usher them to the sidelines have almost exclusively failed.

“The young guys didn’t really whup up on the Big Three to get them out of the way, which is the normal way the game has always evolved,” Arias added. “And with Covid, injuries, vaccine issues, all the things that have gone on, it’s like these guys [the Big Three] are just fading away, not getting beaten.”

That detail suggests that a Rafa-less French Open would be a wild roller-coaster ride. Only three of the ATP Top 10 have won Grand Slam titles: Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev. The latter two have each bagged one, and Medvedev aversion to the red clay of Roland Garros has been well-documented. Further, a wide-open field strewn with opportunities and expectations would generate enormous stress and pressure on those who find themselves legitimate contenders. The absence of Nadal would make the tournament unusual in the same way that Olympic tennis and Davis Cup are, and we’ve seen the unexpected results those events churn out.

The absence of Nadal would inspire sentimental tributes and even bouts of mourning. In some ways, though, it would be a great gift to a sport teeming with talent, perched on the cusp of a compelling, perhaps chaotic transition. Think of the tournament as a typical Black Friday, but with the crush of players vying for a major title instead of the world’s biggest television.

“All these years, people were probably playing for second, third, or fourth,” Shriver says. “So, sure, the chance of actually winning will make a difference. But I feel that some of the really young guys, like Alcaraz, [Holger] Rune, Jannik Sinner, they’re sort of built to want the opportunity to win a major. Alcaraz has already proven he can. I think they’ll all embrace the opportunity.”

If those men step up, it may be on the toes of the slightly older pros once heralded as the heirs of the Big Three. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, Casper Ruud, Matteo Berretini are fine players who have all come close, sometimes agonizingly close, to winning a major. But they have routinely been rebuffed by the Big Three. They have waited their turn, but the younger generation has been closing on them quickly. And Djokovic himself also is likely to experience a few sleepless nights if he finds himself cast as the favorite.

“We’ve seen a few previews of just how difficult it was for players to perform at Roland Garros on those rare occasions [when Nadal was beaten or obliged to withdraw from the event],” Arias says. “Even Federer, when he won his one title in Paris, was feeling the pressure because he was thinking, ‘This could be my only chance to win here.’”

In a twist that can only add more pressure for Djokovic, the absence of Nadal would give the Serbian star the opportunity to move ahead of Rafa in the Grand Slam title count (they both have 22). Given Nadal’s struggles with injuries, a win by Djokovic could secure him the honor of the all-time men’s Grand Slam champion. But Djokovic has come up short, in surprising ways, in some comparably crucial recent high-pressure situations.

At the 2020 US Open, Djokovic was hot on the trail of Federer and Nadal, both of whom had 20 major titles while Djokovic had 17. The co-leaders both missed the event. The field seemed clear for Djokovic, but a bizarre fourth-round meltdown had himself defaulted, an enormous opportunity squandered.

The following year in New York, it wasn’t anger that cost Djokovic a historic calendar-year Grand Slam, but the inability to muster his trademark confidence and sense of command. He seemed unusually subdued and at times passive his final-round clash with Medvedev claimed his first major title with a straight-set win.

It feels almost like those incidents occurred in the distant past, because the game certainly moves fast. Dominic Thiem can attest to that. He won his first major at that Covid-plagued 2020 US Open, advancing the theory that he was the natural successor to Nadal. After all, he was already also a two-time finalist and two-time semifinalist at the French Open—in successive years starting in 2016, no less. (Nadal inflicted three of those losses, including the two in championship matches.)

Then a serious wrist injury sidelined Thiem in early 2021, and he’s had a lot of trouble gaining traction since (he’s hovering around the No. 100 ranking these days).

“Four years ago, he was the one everyone thought would win in Paris when Rafa finally let go,” Shriver says. “But he looks like a shadow of his former self. Everyone is wondering if he’s ever going to get back.”

The days when Nadal could be counted on to blast his way with little trouble through the clay-season, from Monte Carlo through Roland Garros, are long past. There’s a chance Nadal will enter and compete ably in Paris, even though he hasn’t played an official match since mid-January.

Arias learned the hard way never to discount Nadal’s chances in Paris. He predicted once or twice that, either through problems of his own or the quality of the competition, Nadal would not win at Roland Garros. He was humbled every time.

“If Rafa did enter the tournament this year I would probably write off his chances for the obvious reasons,” Arias said. “And Rafa would probably win it again.”