Indian Wells ATP Preview: Novak Djokovic or no Djokovic, the show will go on at the BNP Paribas Open

The Novak Djokovic Show is in the process of getting a sequel. Just as in Australia six weeks ago, it’s unclear, because of Covid vaccination rules, whether he will be able to (a) enter the country where the tournament is being held, and (b) play in it. Just as in Australia, he’s in the draw; but unlike in Australia, it’s not clear as of this writing whether he’ll make the trip here.

(Editor's Note: On Wednesday afternoon local time, Djokovic withdrew from the tournament (and Miami) after confirming on his social media accounts that he cannot enter the U.S.)

With all of that up in the air, we’ll go ahead and preview the draw as is—i.e., with Djokovic in it. Even if the world No. 2 doesn’t end up playing, most of his Top 20 colleagues are in the desert. Here’s a look ahead at how they might do.

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First Quarter

Where is Daniil Medvedev’s head right now? To say the last two weeks have been a roller coaster for him is an understatement. At the same time that he was achieving a lifelong goal of becoming No. 1, he was watching his country invade another, smaller country, and losing the Russian flag next to his name. And with a chance in Acapulco to avenge himself against the man who stole the Australian Open from him, Rafael Nadal, Medvedev came up even shorter.

Maybe Medvedev can put some of those emotions to the side as he plays his first tournament as a world No. 1. But as always at a Masters 1000, there won’t be many easy opponents, even for him. He could face Gael Monfils in the third round; Carlos Alcaraz or Roberto Bautista Agut after that; and, possibly, either Stefanos Tsitsipas or defending Indian Wells champion Cam Norrie in the quarters.

Semifinalist: Medvedev

Regardless of Djokovic's availability, most of the rest of the Top 20 has gathered in the California desert.

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Second Quarter

Nadal at 35 is living his best tennis life. He has the first major of the year under his belt for the first time since 2009; he’s on a 15-match hard-court win streak; he may even be eyeing a return to No. 1 once clay season rolls around; and he loves Indian Wells and its golf courses.

How long can Rafa ride the good vibes from Melbourne? His quarter looks relatively manageable. He could play one of his idolators, Seb Korda, in the second round; Dan Evans after that; Reilly Opelka or Denis Shapovalov after that; and Jannik Sinner or Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals.

First-round match to watch: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Borna Coric, who is returning to the tour 10 months after undergoing shoulder surgery.

Semifinalist: Nadal

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Third Quarter

Like Djokovic, Alexander Zverev’s presence in Indian Wells was questionable coming into the tournament. It was widely expected that he would be suspended after swinging his racquet an inch or two from a chair umpire’s legs in Acapulco. Instead, the ATP gave Zverev a year’s probation and promised to punish him if he ever does something like it again. That’s a lot of carrot, and not much stick.

Which means Zverev will be in Indian Wells as the No. 3 seed. Can he shake off his troubles and play focused tennis for 10 days? After a stellar second half of 2021, he has stumbled a bit so far in 2022. Zverev could have a tough first-rounder, against either Grigor Dimitrov or Tommy Paul. He could play the man who beat him here in October, Taylor Fritz. And he could face either Matteo Berrettini or Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarters. We’ve seen FAA play well in Indian Wells before.

First-round match to watch: Dimitrov vs. Paul

Semifinalist: Auger-Aliassime

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Fourth Quarter

Djokovic is the top seed in this quarter, and Andrey Rublev is second. Right now there are questions surrounding both guys. Such as: Will Djokovic play? How will Rublev, like Medvedev, deal with what’s going on in his country? If Rublev can keep his head clear, he’ll be riding the momentum from two straight tournament wins. And this isn’t the strongest Masters 1000 quarter in history; the other seeds are Frances Tiafoe, Aslan Karatsev, Hubert Hurkacz, Diego Schwartman, John Isner and Alexander Bublik. Hurkacz, who won in Miami last year, can obviously handle U.S. hard courts, and, with his near-miss against Rublev in the Dubai semis last week, would seem to be working toward a first big result of 2022.

Wild card: Andy Murray

Semifinalist: Hurkacz

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