There's little doubt that today's match betwen Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal is a big match for both players; so far these are the two outstanding form players of 2009, and it's the first time they have played a Masters Series final. Their head-to-head currently stands at 5-2 in Nadal's favour, but (with the exception of their sole match on clay) contests between these two players have tended to be tightly fought, and Murray has won their last two encounters, including their four-set US Open semifinal.
A few weeks ago Nadal finished the Rotterdam final with a leg injury, so the outcome doesn't provide much of a guide to what might happen today, though it's worth noting that in spite of impaired movement he was able to take the second set with the assistance of some aggressive point-ending plays that might just work again for him. Murray also won a close-three setter against Nadal in Abu Dhabi earlier this year. It was an exhibition, so the result doesn't count in their head-to-head, but it may still have helped instill confidence in Murray (who has only lost one match so far this season) that he can beat the number one again. He entered this week unsure how his fitness would hold up after suffering a mystery virus, so in that sense has already exceeded expectations. He also said that his number one goal of 2008 was to beat Nadal; another win today could pay dividends down the line in a Grand Slam. It would also move Murray closer to overtaking Novak Djokovic as world number three - a transition that theoretically could occur either in Miami or during the clay season. Both Murray and Djokovic lost their first matches in Miami last year, and a win today would put Murray on 8250 points, with Djokovic falling to 8420 points after his quarterfinal finish this week. As losing finalist, Murray would hold 7850 points.
Meanwhile, after being on the losing end a couple of times (and given that he has finally defeated David Nalbandian, a feat that Murray has yet to emulate) Nadal will no doubt wish to assert himself today; another Masters Series title would give him 13 overall, one behind Federer on the all-time list (headed by Andre Agassi with 17 titles) - and who would bet against him adding to that total in Miami, or during the upcoming clay season?
As always, enjoy today's tennis.
-- Rosangel Valenti
