Aryna Sabalenka and Jannik Sinner didn’t have an Indian Wells title, or a big win in 2026. Now they have both

The fact that Alcaraz was 11-2 coming into Indian Wells wasn’t a surprise to any tennis fan. The fact that Shapovalov was 10-4? That’s not something that many, or any, would have seen coming from the Canadian, who began the year just inside the Top 60, and who dropped all the way to 140 in 2024.

But Shapovalov has rediscovered his swing over the past month, winning a title in Dallas, reaching a semifinal in Acapulco, and beating for Top 20ers: Ruud, Fritz, Paul, and Machac. "Shapo" is either hot or not, but when he’s the former, there are few more spectacular shotmakers, whether he’s hooking his lefty serve to the corners or rifling backhand winners from two feet off the ground.

On Monday, Shapovalov will meet an equally spectacular, and more successful, shotmaker in Alcaraz. The two have played once, two years ago at Roland Garros, and the Spaniard was an easy, straight-set winner. Now they’ll face off on a surface—the slow hard courts of Indian Wells—that, if anything, Alcaraz likes even better. Shapo is a guy who can stay with Alcaraz in the shot-making department on the right day. Will Monday be that day? It will be interesting, if nothing else, to see how far the Canadian’s current momentum can take him. He’s still just 25. Winner: Alcaraz

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Sakkari leads Gauff 5-3 in their head to head, and she beat her in their most recent recent meeting, which came at Indian Wells a year ago.

Coco Gauff vs. Maria Sakkari

>>> Watch live at 4 p.m. ET on TennisChannel.com HERE

Based on ranking and long-term form, Gauff should be the solid, possibly overwhelming, favorite. She’s No. 3 in the world, and has been to the semis or better four times at Slams in the last two seasons. Sakkari is ranked 29th, and hasn’t been out of the third round at a major since 2022.

But there are some extenuating circumstances to this matchup. First, Sakkari leads Gauff 5-3 in their head to head, and she beat her in their most recent recent meeting, which came at Indian Wells a year ago. Second, Sakkari likes this tournament as much or more than any other; she has reached the final two times in the past three years. Third, Gauff was 0-2 in the month of February, and nearly lost to 52nd-ranked Moyuka Uchijima on Saturday after double faulting 21 times.

That said, Sakkari didn’t exactly roll into Indian Wells, either; she lost in the first round at her previous two events.

This feels like a match that will be on Gauff’s racquet. At some point, she’s going to snap out of her current funk; she always does. Sometimes that can happen when a player just barely avoids defeat in a near-disastrous performance. But I’ll say Coco’s turnaround will have to wait at least one week longer. Winner: Sakkari

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This year Monfils became the oldest ATP title winner since 1990; last year Dimitrov re-cracked the Top 10.

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Gael Monfils vs. Grigor Dimitrov

>>> Watch live at 10:10 p.m. ET on TennisChannel.com HERE

Old guys—Monfils is 38, Dimitrov 34.

Entertaining guys—Monfils is still one of the sport’s most acrobatic athletes, while Dimitrov’s smooth attack now makes him look like the ghost of Federer, rather than his "Baby".

Renaissance guys—In January, Monfils became the oldest ATP title winner since 1990; last year Dimitrov re-cracked the Top 10.

They’ve played six times before. While the Frenchman holds a 4-2 lead, the Bulgarian won their most recent match, at Wimbledon last summer.

Monfils had the better first-round win this weekend, over Sebastian Korda, but that doesn’t mean much with him; strong performances can lead right into indifferent ones. Dimitrov is off to a slow start this season; he was just 3-4 before IW. But he likes this tournament, and has been to the semis and quarters here in recent years.

All of which means: When it comes to picking a winner between these two, your guess is as good as mine. Winner: Monfils

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