Indian Wells Men's Preview: Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz can’t get away from each other

The headline, of course, is who isn’t in the men’s draw: Jannik Sinner, the world No. 1, is suspended for a doping violation that occurred in Indian Wells a year ago.

What we’re left with, then, is a race to see who can gain the most ground on the Italian in his absence. The BNP Paribas Open’s top two seeds, Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz, can use all the ranking points they can get if they want to challenge Sinner for the year-end No. 1 spot.

That’s one thing that Indian Wells and Miami have—ranking points. A thousand of them go to the winner of each event. Who might claim them at Indian Wells two Sundays from now? (Watch the BNP Paribas Open live on Tennis Channel and TennisChannel.com starting March 5.)

A look at three highlights from the draw:

Novak and Carlos can’t get away from each other

They played in the quarterfinals at the Australian Open. They were scheduled to play in the semifinals in Doha. Now they’re in the same quarter again in Indian Wells. Somebody up there likes to watch Alcaraz and Djokovic play, and doesn’t care what round it happens. I can’t say I blame them.

The problem in Doha was that Djokovic lost in the first round. What are the chances they both make it to the quarters this time around?

Alcaraz has had a solid last month, winning in Rotterdam and making the quarters in Doha. More importantly, he loves Indian Wells, where he’s the two-time defending champion, and where he beat Sinner last year. He’ll obviously be tough to stop, but he might play a rejuvenated Denis Shapovalov in the third round. If nothing else, that should be a crackling showcase of ball-striking.

Djokovic’s chances are far more up in the air. He’s coming off an injury in Melbourne and a first-round loss in Doha. While’s a five-time champ in Indian Wells, he hasn’t been past the fourth round since 2017. New friend Nick Kyrgios might be his first opponent, if Kyrgios can find his way past a qualifier in his opener.

Zverev and Medvedev are No. 1 and 3 seeds in the top half, but do they really look like title contenders?

It’s a bit jarring to remember that Medvedev reached the Indian Wells final each of the past two years (losing to Alcaraz both times). The Russian is in a funk that began with an early loss at the Australian Open and continued across a tantrum-filled February. Now he has 500 finalist’s points to defend, and a draw that could send him up against two quality Americans, Tommy Paul and Alex Michelsen, in his second and third matches.

Zverev hasn’t been slumping as badly as Medvedev; he did make the Australian Open final, after all. But his blowout loss to Sinner in that match seems to have left him floundering for confidence and direction. He couldn’t get out of the quarters in Buenos Aires, Rio or Acapulco, yet here he is, the top seed at the year’s first Masters 1000. He doesn’t appear to have an easy road: Tallon Griekspoor, who has been playing well, is a possible opener, followed by Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, followed by either Frances Tiafoe or Acapulco champ Tomas Machac.

I’d give Medvedev, despite his subpar form, a better chance of reaching the final.

Taylor Fritz has something to prove, again

We’ve said that a lot about the Americans over the past two years, as Fritz has slowly joined, or nearly joined, the tour’s elite. First he had to win a Masters 1000, which he did at Indian Wells three years ago. Then he had to prove he could make the Top 10, which he did. Then he had to make the semis at a Slam, which he did, as well as a final, last summer at the US Open.

At the start of 2025, winning a major, and beating guys like Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic, seemed to be next on Fritz’s to-do lost. Instead, he took a shock loss to Gael Monfils at the Australian Open, and is just 2-2 since. What does Fritz need to prove now? That he’s the same guy who made the finals of the US Open and the ATP Finals last year, and that there’s still room for him to keep moving up at 27.

Indian Wells is the place for him to do it. He loves the hard courts there, he’s from Southern California, and he looks to have a favorable early draw—Sebastian Baez and Alejandro Tabilo may be his first two opponents. Then he could face a test, either from Jack Draper or the red-hot Felix Auger-Aliassime. But as the No. 3 seed, Fritz couldn’t face Alcaraz until the semifinals. We’ll see how much momentum he can build, and confidence he can regain, by then.