Indian Wells Semifinal Previews: Daniil Medvedev vs. Frances Tiafoe; Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner

HIGHLIGHTS: How Sinner got past defending champion Fritz, and into the final four

Daniil Medvedev vs. Frances Tiafoe

“Exactly 100 percent not my favorite courts and conditions,” Medvedev says of Indian Wells. So how he has made his first semifinal there? He says it’s because he’s “in the zone where you get a little bit of luck on your side, some crazy shots, some crazy points on your side.”

Those crazy shots have led him to 18 straight wins. Two more this weekend and he’ll have his fourth straight tournament title, a rare feat for anyone. He probably feels pretty good about getting No. 19, too, because in four previous meetings with Tiafoe, Medvedev has dropped just one set.

But those numbers come with an asterisk, because they took place in 2021 or earlier, when Foe wasn’t the pro we know today. The American is more patient, his game is more complete, and he has a lot more confidence that he can beat players of Medvedev’s caliber. His straight-set quarterfinal win over Cam Norrie, a guy who makes you work for everything, was an example of that.

On the surface, Medvedev would still seem to be a tough match-up for Tiafoe. The Russian is steadier, and has the better serve and backhand. He can be beaten for pace by a more aggressive hitter—see his losses to Nick Kyrgios and Sebastian Korda at the last two majors. And Tiafoe, when he’s mixing drop shots in with net rushes and using his speed to command the rallies, can do that—see his win over Rafael Nadal at last year’s US Open. But he’ll have to be at his multifarious best, and avoid those “crazy points” Medvedev has been winning, to end the streak. Winner: Medvedev

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner

There are few things Alcaraz loves more, it seems, than a throwdown with his fellow young gun Sinner. He says he loves to play “high-quality matches” and to be “pushed to the limit,” and Sinner gives him a chance for both of those things.

The 19-year-old Spaniard and the 21-year-old Italian have begun to develop a friendly rivalry that seems destined to last for a decade or more. They’re 2-2 against each other; Sinner has won their matches on clay and grass, Alcaraz has won both of their meetings on hard courts. Each of those contests has been, as Alcaraz says, high-quality. But they leaped into another stratosphere together with their wee-hour US Open quarterfinal last year, which went five blistering hours and sets, and ended at 2:50 in the morning. It felt like a glimpse of tennis’ future, where the ball and players moved faster than we’ve ever seen before.

Can they replicate those types of super-sonic rallies on Indian Wells’ slower courts? I don’t see why not. Both looked sharp in beating their quarterfinal opponents, Taylor Fritz and Felix Auger-Aliassime, on Thursday. Sinner is improving under the tutelage of Darren Cahill; his close win over Fritz was a match that may have gone against him a year ago. But I still think Alcaraz is a couple steps, and a couple laser forehands, ahead. Winner: Alcaraz