Indian Wells Women's Final Preview: Iga Swiatek vs. Maria Sakkari

HIGHLIGHTS: Swiatek tops Halep in straight-set semifinal

Swiatek is No. 4 in the rankings and 19-3 on the season. Sakkari is No. 6 and 16-4. The player who wins on Sunday will move up to No. 2. For a WTA event without Ash Barty, this is about as high-level and relevant as a big final can get in 2022.

It’s also a final, that, judging by the current form of one of the players, has a clear favorite. Yes, Sakkari comes in with a 3-1 record against Swiatek, and that includes a straight-set win at the tour finals in Guadalajara last November. But Swiatek won their most recent meeting, in Doha; she has won a title and reached a Grand Slam semifinal this year; she’s on a 10-match win streak; she has elevated her game more than any other player on the WTA tour so far this season; and she’s 4-1 in finals while Sakkari is just 1-3. Swiatek has also improved over the course of this tournament: She won her first three matches in three sets, and her last two, over Madison Keys and Simona Halep, in straights.

Swiatek credits her good play to an improved sense of when to be aggressive, and when to stay patient.

“I think that’s the most important thing in tennis because really we are super strong and we can hit really hard, but we’ve got to choose the right moments,” she said on Friday. “And earlier I didn’t feel like I was choosing the right moments, but I think it also comes with a little bit of experience.”

This will be Sakkari’s first WTA 1000 final. She seems to understand that she’ll be the underdog.

“Obviously we know that she has been playing very, very good since the beginning of the year, I would say,” Sakkari said of Swiatek. “She’s one of the most consistent players this season, and she has a lot of confidence.”

“But, you know, on the other hand, I just have full faith and a lot of confidence on my game and on myself right now,” added Sakkari, who ended Paula Badosa’s title defense in a back-and-forth, three-set semifinal.

Whoever ends up the champion, this should be a showcase for two of the WTA’s most dynamic athletes. Swiatek will leap into her forehand, and Sakkari will take full cuts at her backhand and follow it forward. There won’t be a lot of waiting around for the other player to miss. But right now, it’s Swiatek’s game that isn’t missing much.

Winner: Swiatek