Indian Wells Women's Preview: Will Madison Keys and the top tier reassert themselves?

With each passing week in 2025, the WTA has become a little more wide open. On January 1st, it looked as if the women’s tour might have a dominant No. 1 in Aryna Sabalenka. Or maybe a Big 3 in Sabalenka, Swiatek and Coco Gauff. Two months later, and they’ve combined to win just one singles title, and none has made a final since the Australian Open.

Will the upheaval continue in March, or will we see the top seeds reassert themselves? With the draw out, here are three questions that we’ll see answered over the next two weeks at the first stop on the Sunshine Double, Indian Wells. (Watch the BNP Paribas Open live on Tennis Channel and TennisChannel.com starting March 5.)

Sabalenka, Swiatek or Gauff: Who has the best chance of finding her game?

Everything feels new again in Indian Wells, more than one player has remarked over the years. Sun, blue skies and desert warmth will do that for you, no matter badly the previous two months have gone. The WTA’s Top 3 could use some of that sun and optimism, after a chilly February.

Of the three, Sabalenka, a finalist here in 2023, has the smoothest road on paper. That is, if she gets past her first match, which could be against surging American McCartney Kessler. The next three seeds in Sabalenka’s quarter are Jasmine Paolini, Daria Kasatkina and Beatriz Haddad Maia.

Gauff, who is in Sabalenka’s half, has a more perilous path. She may start against Emma Raducanu, then play Maria Sakkari, a two-time BNP Paribas Open finalist, in the third round; Amanda Anisimova, recent winner in Doha, in the round of 16; and Australian Open champ Madison Keys in the quarters. That’s a gauntlet for someone who didn’t win a single match at February’s 1000s in Doha and Dubai.

Swiatek may have the most to lose at Indian Wells. She’s the defending champion, and she traditionally kicks her game into high gear at this time of year. So far in 2025, though, she has been stuck. Her path may include a couple of tricky opponents, in Ons Jabeur and Karolina Muchova, in the early going; and a harder hitter, in either Zheng Qinwen or Paula Badosa, in the quarterfinals.

Madison Keys has never loved the Sunshine Double. Does that change during her triumphant return this year?

Keys, newly minted Slam champ at 30, will be the toast of the town when she returns to the tour at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. That might sound like the perfect way to start another big-title run, except for the fact that she has never played well here. She’s 10-11 in Indian Wells, 11-13 in Miami, and has made the quarters just once at each place in 26 tries.

Are the courts too slow, or the air too thin, for her power game? Maybe, but she has been a semifinalist on slow red clay at Roland Garros. Does the heat, sun and wind affect her more than other players? Possibly, but she has lived most of her life in Florida, and just won big in Melbourne. All of which is to say that there doesn’t seem to be a good reason for her not to have success this month.

That’s especially true this year, when she’ll come in with more confidence than ever before. But Keys’ draw will present its challenges. Gauff, Sakkari, Anisimova, Emma Navarro and Donna Vekic are in her quarter, and Sabalenka is in her half.

We’ve had a lot of surprise winners in 2025. Are any of them a danger in the desert?

There have been a wide variety of success stories already in 2025. Anisimova, Muchova, Ostapenko, Andreeva, Pegula, Navarro, Kessler, Tauson, Bencic, Krueger and Osaka, among others, have all won titles or made finals.

As for who could be a factor, you have to start with Mirra Andreeva, who is coming off her first 1000-level title in Dubai. That included a straight-set win over Swiatek. Is the 17-year-old ready for more right away, or will be a valley after that peak? She could start against a returning Petra Kvitova, and then play two women she beat in Dubai, Clara Tauson and No. 4 seed Elena Rybakina, after that.

Pegula and Navarro, as the No. 4 and 10 seeds, can’t be called dark horses. Can they be called possible title contenders at home, after each won a tournament this weekend? They may both have to get past a bomb-thrower to do it: Pegula could get an early test from Jelena Ostapenko, and Navarro the same from Keys.

Then there’s Anisimova. Like Keys, the 23-year-old hasn’t had much success in Indian Wells. But like Keys, she can out-hit anyone, she’s coming off a career-best performance, and she should have the fans with her. She may need them if she plays Belinda Bencic in her opener.

Finally, we’ll run it back a few years. In 2018, Naomi Osaka announced herself to the world when she won Indian Wells as an unseeded player. She’ll try to do the same when she faces Camila Osorio in her opener, and Tauson after that.