Indian Wells WTA Preview: Ash Barty’s absence will be everyone else’s opportunity at the BNP Paribas Open

On the plus side, there’s spring tennis in Indian Wells again. In 2020, this was one of the first major events in any sport to be cancelled due to the pandemic; now, in 2022, it will be one of the first to go on as Covid restrictions begin to fall en masse around the United States and much of the world.

On the minus side, the women’s draw is missing the WTA’s best player and most recent Grand Slam champion: Ash Barty, who says her body hasn’t recovered from her Australian Open run. It would have been nice to see a mandatory WTA 1000 event headlined by the world No. 1, but it’s not going to happen this year (Barty will also skip Miami).

For the rest of the field, Barty’s absence will be their opportunity. Here’s a look at their paths through the draw. (Editor's Note: On Tuesday, Barbora Krejcikova withdrew from the tournament with an elbow injury.)

First Quarter

Barbora Krejcikova has won a major title, but has she been the top seed at an event of this stature yet? That’s what the world No. 2 is this week, but it hasn’t bought the Czech, who lost in the fourth round in Indian Wells last October, an especially easy road to the semifinals. She could play Sorana Cirstea in the third round, Coco Gauff or Simona Halep after that, and, potentially, either Karolina Pliskova or Emma Raducanu in the quarterfinals. Speaking of Pliskova, she’ll be making her 2022 debut, after injuring her hand during the off-season.

• First-round match to watch: Dayana Yastremska vs. Caroline Garcia
• Potential third-round match to watch: Gauff vs. Halep

Semifinalist: Halep

Second Quarter

Iga Swiatek swore, after she won at Roland Garros as a 19-year-old in the fall of 2020, that she would do everything in her power to be a consistent winner in the future. And while she hasn’t repeated at a major, she has mostly met that goal. She’s been consistent at the Slams, she’s coming off a title in Doha, and her ranking is up to No. 4. Next on the to-do list would seem to be a winning run at a WTA 1000 like Indian Wells.

Swiatek is the highest seed in this quarter, but as with Krejcikova, that doesn’t mean her path will be a smooth one. She could play fast-rising teenager Clara Tauson in her second match, and Garbiñe Muguruza and Australian Open semifinalist Madison Keys are potential quarterfinal opponents. Elina Svitolina, a woman on a mission right now, is also here.

Unseeded: Sofia Kenin, currently ranked No. 130, will begin against Beatriz Haddad Maia

First-round matches to watch:

• Alizé Cornet vs. Ana Konjuh
• Kaia Kanepi vs. 17-year-old Washington, D.C., native Robin Montgomery

Semifinalist: Swiatek

My Tennis Life: Ajla Tomljanovic preps for Indian Wells

Third Quarter

Paula Badosa had a breakthrough moment when she beat Victoria Azarenka in a classic final here last fall. But meeting the expectations that she created with that win hasn’t been easy. She lost in the fourth round in Melbourne, the first round in Dubai, and the third round in Doha. Will the desert be a charm for her again? This quarter features two recent tournament champions, Leylah Fernandez and Jelena Ostapenko; one of the best players of the last six months, Anett Kontaveit; Aussie Open quarterfinalist Jessica Pegula; and a bye-less and unseeded Naomi Osaka.

• First-round match to watch: Osaka vs. Sloane Stephens
• Potential second-round match to watch: Amanda Anisimova vs. Fernandez

Semifinalist: Kontaveit

Fourth Quarter

If there’s a top WTA player who could use a win or three, it’s Aryna Sabalenka. After a stellar 2021, she’s just 6-5 this season. She has been passed by Krejickova in the rankings, and seen Swiatek, Badosa and Kontaveit inch closer behind her. Sabalenka will try to regain some momentum in a quarter that also includes Maria Sakkari, Ons Jabeur and Victoria Azarenka.

New face: Camila Osorio. The 20-year-old Colombian is coming off a runner-up finish in Monterrey. She’ll start against Aliaksandra Sasnovich.

Semifinalist: Sakkari

Semifinalist: Swiatek d. Halep; Kontaveit d. Sakkari

Final: Swiatek vs. Kontaveit