The first Masters Series event of the season is in the books and the new year is under way in earnest. What have we learned from our week in Indian Wells?
Rafael Nadal ain’t over
Just when I was ready to give up on Nadal—I picked him to lose to Mikhail Youzhny in this tournament—he goes and reminds us all of how he’s won so many matches and held the No. 2 ranking longer than any other man. While he didn’t get revenge over any of his recent tormentors—James Blake, Tomas Berdych, and Youzhny all lost before Rafa could get a shot at them—judging by his form in the semifinals and final, he would have stood a better than even chance against all of them.
Nadal went back to his old service motion after struggling with his delivery in his first-round. He only gained confidence from there. His two sets against Andy Roddick in the semifinals and first set against Novak Djokovic in the final may have been the best winning tennis he’s played since beating Marcos Baghdatis in the Wimbledon semis in 2006. Nadal’s forehand was sharp, and the slow courts gave him to run around and hit it pretty much whenever he wanted.
Against Roddick, Nadal flattened out his forehand to take the initiative away from the American. A signal of his assertiveness came early, when Roddick kicked a serve wide and Nadal drilled it up the line for a winner, a shot he rarely tries on the first ball in a rally. That kind of play continued all the way through a brilliant first set against Djokovic. But it was in the second set of the final that Nadal showed off his best weapon: his refusal to cave.
Serving at 0-1, with Djokovic loosened up and beginning to get control of the baseline, Nadal had to fight off multiple break points. To any veteran tennis watcher, this game screamed momentum swing. I felt like even most pros in Nadal’s shoes would have panicked or gotten down on themselves and lost serve. Not Nadal. He stayed with it, eventually held, and fought off what had seemed an inevitable turn in the tide. ESPN’s Darren Cahill recognized the importance right away, exclaiming “What a hold by Nadal!” even though it only made the score 1-1. More than his serve or forehand, it’s those kinds of moments and that kind of mental fortitude that has put Nadal at No. 2 in the world.
The hot (male) shots are progressing fast
After the Australian Open, I speculated that Andy Murray had moved ahead of Djokovic in the Most Likely to Succeed Department with his near-takedown of Nadal in Melbourne. Now where do we stand? Djoko beat Murray easily in the semis. The Scot was tired and perhaps injured, but I was disappointed that he didn’t put himself on the line emotionally in this match. He seemed content to excuse himself and take an easy loss. Murray’s previous match, with Tommy Haas, was just plain confusing. By the end, after the injuries and timeouts and emergency treatments, I wasn’t sure either of them wanted to win. Then Murray suddenly took charge of the points with his forehand at the very end of the third-set tiebreaker. It’s something he could have done much earlier.
As for Djokovic, this was a breakthrough; he didn’t lose a set until the final, and he fought his way past his obvious nerves to give Nadal a run. He showed off a complete game in the process. Does Djokovic have any weaknesses? His volleys were exposed as a liability against Nadal (I had thought they were stronger), his first serve is not a monster yet (though his kick is already one of the best around), and, like David Nalbandian, Djokovic has a tendency to flub a few more routine ground strokes than you think he would. Otherwise, we saw a guy this week deservedly take his place on the proverbial radar screen (and break into the Top 10). I’d put him neck and neck with Murray as they round the first career turn.
