You never know what the future will bring, but going into 2008 few of us could have conceived of one in which Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal became semifinal fodder. That’s what the two best players in the world have been in the two biggest tournaments of the year so far. First in Melbourne and now in Indian Wells, Federer and Nadal were both drummed out in the semis in straight sets. Today it was by the identically eye-popping scores of 3 and 2.
Eye-popping, yes, but what do these losses by Fed and Rafa mean for the top of the men’s game going forward? In some ways the results are anomalies. Neither guy is going to start losing 3 and 2 to anyone on a regular basis, and neither is likely to make a habit of getting blown out by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Mardy Fish. But the cracks in both of their armors grew a few new branches today.
First up was Nadal versus Novak Djokovic, the man who is hunting the No. 2 ranking that the Spaniard has held for three years. This was a 1:00 match on a 90-degree day, the kind of afternoon I associate with a classic grind-the-other-guy-into-the-dust performance by Nadal. But it was Djokovic who was sharp in the opening game. After a few early hiccups, he controlled the middle of the court for the rest of the day and watched as a demoralized and weary Nadal sprayed and shanked his way off the court as fast as possible.
In the second set, Nadal played as badly as I’ve ever seen him play. The comparison that comes to mind is his loss to Youzhny at the U.S. Open in 2007, but even then he seemed more spirited. Against Blake two days ago, he had attacked his returns; today he was passive with them, and he hit short with both his ground strokes. But even at his worst, he never caves and hits a half-hearted, all-or-nothing drop shot the way he did when he was down a break point at 2-4 in the second set. It landed in the bottom of the net and, the match now essentially over, Nadal marched straight to his chair on the sidelines. This followed a series of horrid frame shots and routine misses from both ground stroke wings. Nadal said he was tired, and he had a right to be after his last two matches. But it doesn’t hide the fact that he was also demoralized by Djokovic’s canny, tricky, complete game—the Serb was the better player in every facet of the match.
Through the first set, the two seemed ready to showcase baseline tennis at its best. They fought carefully to carve out a space in the middle of the court that would eventually allow them to get a look at a ball they could aim toward the corners. They were each trying to find a way around the other’s defenses, Nadal with high-kicking topspin, Djokovic by hitting line drives on the rise. The test would be, Who could create the opportunities to hit outside the center of the court, and who could deliver when they got that chance?
In both cases it was Djokovic. He got on top of Nadal’s topspin with his backhand, but even more impressive was how well he defended with his forehand. Typically Nadal takes control of a point with an inside-out forehand that forces his opponent far to his right. Djokovic used a wide-open stance to return those balls, which left him with an easy recovery back to the center of the court. Nadal couldn’t get him scrambling and couldn’t find a safe way to dictate points. The errors started to fly.
For his own part, Djokovic broke down Nadal by working up the lines and taking his time away (something Fish would do well against Federer later). He broke Nadal on a lucky net cord for 5-3, but what matters is how he followed that up in his own service game. Djokovic kept the pressure on with three good first serves, including an ace, and punctuated the set with another ace.
In the second set, Djokovic mixed up his serve well enough to fool Nadal a number of times (including with a half-pace slice in the deuce court that went for an easy ace.) And he had no trouble flicking his forehand short and wide to Nadal’s backhand and then sending a rifle shot up the line for a winner on the next shot. Martina Navratilova has said that she doesn’t love Djokovic’s forehand because it’s “busy.” And the little extra rotation he uses at the end of his backswing does look like an affectation. But does it help him somehow, with variety, spin, angle, trajectory? I can’t say for sure, but few players put the ball in different spots (short and long, crosscourt and down the line) with as much as ease and seeming disguise as Djokovic does with his forehand.
Afterward, Nadal said he wasn’t injured, and that the timeout he took was for a pinched toe. He said he was tired, but what struck me was how cavalier he was about accepting Djokovic as a potential No. 1 this year: “I think he’s not better than Roger,” Nadal said of Djokovic, “but in the first part of the season he play better than [anyone], so going to be big chances for be No. 1 this year for sure. Why not?”
This is just an honest assessment of the situation—you’d never get anything else from Nadal. But for perhaps the first time an honest assessment now means contemplating Djokovic as not just No. 2 in the world, but No. 1. Was this the match in which Djokovic established himself as superior to Nadal? I’m not prepared to say that, but as Rafa himself says when he thinks of how good Djokovic could be: “Why not?” In other words, the sky’s the limit, and everything is up for grabs.
