Is a Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz US Open final too much to ask for?

NEW YORK—One is an expressive individual whose exuberant playing style has him treading the razor’s edge between the reckless and the sublime. The other is a somewhat introverted youth whose carefully calibrated game is punishing, allowing him to rule the tennis court like a medieval king surrounded by fortifications that cannot be breached. The one named Alcaraz has a stout build, olive skin and jet-black hair, while his counterpart, whose name is Sinner, is a shy ginger, lanky bordering on skinny.

A study in contrasts on and off the court, these two men have shocked the sporting world by rudely shouting their genius into the extended moment of silence called for at the end of the Big Three era, a glorious period that hasn’t even officially ended yet—not with Novak Djokovic still on the loose. But here we are, marveling at a pair of young titans (Alcaraz is 22, Sinner, 24) who have bolted to the top of tennis, dominating their peers so comprehensively that it leaves us with the question that will dominate the upcoming US Open:

Is it too much to ask that these two men once again battle it out for the title on the final day of the upcoming US Open?

Not hardly, judging from the evidence. By losing Roland Garros to Alcaraz, Sinner fell one point short of completing a non-calendar year Grand Slam (a “Sinner Slam”) following Wimbledon. Alcaraz is the youngest man to have won a major on all three court surfaces. Only Bjorn Borg and Rafael Nadal collected five Grand Slam titles at a younger age than Alcaraz.

Read more: Sinner, Alcaraz battle for No. 1 ranking at 2025 US Open

Still, many things could go awry to derail yet another re-match in Gotham—one that would make Sinner and Alcaraz the first pair since Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in 2008 to duke it out in three of the year’s four Grand Slam finals.

The Cincinnati Open provided a vivid example of just such a disappointment might come about. On Monday afternoon, Sinner was obliged by an unspecified but perhaps heat-related illness to retire after losing the first five games in the much-anticipated final with his rival. It was the fifth consecutive time the men, entered in the same tournament, advanced to the championship match.

Barring obstacles related to health or ambient conditions, the most conspicuous impediment to another showdown at the summit is Alcaraz’s oft-cited tendency to take his foot off the gas during a match or, as Tennis Channel commentator Jim Courier said on air, “Carlos isn’t Australian, but he does go on walkabouts.”

Jannik has the capacity of, you know, being there mentally, point-after-point, not having ups and downs in a match. It makes him really, really special. The way he moves, the way he hits the ball. It is amazing. Carlos Alcaraz on Jannik Sinner

Alcaraz lost the second set after winning the opening one ten times this year alone. The good news for his supporters is that nine of those times he surged back to win. When he did so in the Cincy semis against Andrey Rublev in Cincinnati, Alcaraz analyzed the tendency to glitch out in his news conference: “Playing someone like Andrey, when you lose focus on two or three points, it [can] cost you the set or almost the match.” Alcaraz also found a way to turn the shortcoming into a triumph of sorts by adding, “I just stayed strong mentally and that’s what I’m most proud of.”

It doesn’t take a high-grade tennis expert to see that Alcaraz is playing with fire with these brief lapses. They add unhelpful stress, fatigue and scoreboard danger, the last things a player needs during the long, hot slog of five-set US Open matches. The last thing anyone needs against the most consistent competitor in men' s tennis.

“At some point [Alcaraz] is going to lose some of those matches because he gives them away,” Courier said. “It’s going to happen. But right now, the thrill ride hasn't been interrupted.”

The list of players who could conceivably dust Alcaraz in the event his mind goes wandering at some point is short. Very short. Over the last 52 weeks, Alcaraz is 13-4 against Top 10 opponents, winning 10 of his last 11. Other than Sinner, he’s only been beaten by Alexander Zverev, Djokovic, and Casper Ruud. All three of those losses were on hard courts. After Sinner, Zverev has the most impressive head-to-head record (6-6) with Alcaraz. A lesser player with first-strike knockout power could also spell danger.

Sinner has no comparable vulnerability. He is a locked-in, buttoned-up, unrelenting bombardier, especially on hard courts where, discounting his retirement on Monday, he is 65-3 on hard courts going back to 2024. The only men to beat him were Alcaraz (twice) and Andrey Rublev.

“Nothing you can throw at Sinner rattles him,” Tennis Channel analyst Lindsay Davenport said after the Italian’s semifinal win in Cincinnati over the spectacularly dangerous overnight sensation, Terence Atmane. It was just the kind of match-up that might give a player prone to lapses of concentration the hee-bee jee-bees: Atmane is a tall (6-foot-4), explosive southpaw who was having the tournament of his life on Cincy’s slick court until Sinner handcuffed him, 7-6 (4), 6-2.

Injury or illness is a more dangerous and disappointing dealbreaker, as we saw in Cincinnati. We’re getting to the tail end of a Grand Slam season in which the five-and-a-half-hour final at Roland Garros was the high point. While Sinner has weathered the challenges more efficiently, Alcaraz has shown no sign of damage from all those three and four-set matches that he might have ended with greater dispatch.

Ironically, Sinner appears the one worse for the wear. The illness in Cincy was a case of horrible timing. But Sinner also injured his right elbow in a tumble in the fourth round at Wimbledon, and wore a warming sleeve over his arm in his next two matches. Back on tour in Cincy, he again featured the sleeve but explained that it wasn’t due to any lingering elbow problem.

Sinner may be playing his cards close to his vest in order to keep from giving his opponents hope, or confidence. But there’s no question that the high heat and humidity that so often lies like a damp wool blanket over the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center could adversely impact either man: Sinner, partly due to recent history and his pale complexion, Alcaraz in the event he becomes embroiled in one or more lengthy matches.

“I put a sleeve on because I liked the feeling of the sleeve,” he told the media. “It gives a little bit more impact with the ball [and greater stability].”

Sinner may be playing his cards close to his vest in order to keep from giving his opponents hope, or confidence. But there’s no question that the high heat and humidity that so often lies like a damp wool blanket over the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center could adversely impact either man: Sinner, partly due to recent history and his pale complexion, Alcaraz in the event he becomes embroiled in one or more lengthy matches.

In Cincy, Alcaraz embraced the US summer circuit’s often brutal conditions with great equanimity, telling reporters: “With the hot [heat]…the atmosphere is crazy. I love the atmosphere. You have to be ready for the challenge of playing here because the conditions are extreme with the hot, with the [fast] court, with the humidity…Everything, everything is really tough to deal with. So, I would say that makes Cincinnati special.”

The crazytown character of the US Open can’t be entirely discounted either. No matter how ably these two compete, the relentless buzz at the tournament can be enervating. Playing deep into a wild and wooly night on Arthur Ashe Stadium can disrupt even the most well-planned daily schedule. Cramping is an omni-present threat, while the nearly industrial nature of a Grand Slam also raises the spectre of food poisoning on or off site, an ailment that seems to be on the increase at tour events.

Rest assured that Alcaraz isn’t reading too much into the anticlimax in Cincinnati. Nor does it diminish the feeling among experts and punters alike that Sinner is the world’s best hard-court player—a feeling that Alcaraz appears to share, given how he paid homage to his foil before their most recent meeting.

“I mean the ability of not having any weaknesses, it is crazy,” Alcaraz said, going on to praise Sinner’s capacity for making opponents suffer. “Jannik has the capacity of, you know, being there mentally, point-after-point, not having ups and downs in a match. It makes him really, really special. The way he moves, the way he hits the ball. It is amazing.”

Sinner doesn’t seem nearly as comfortable sharing his thoughts, and he isn't as proficient a communicator. But he always leaves you with the sense that his respect for Alcaraz is comparable, if unspoken. He seems content to let their respective racquets do the talking, and what they say is music to our ears.