Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz? Previewing and predicting their Roland Garros semifinal

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Life happens fast at a Grand Slam tournament. When Roland Garros began less than two weeks ago, there were question marks surrounding the health of Sinner and Alcaraz. The former had a hip injury, the latter had a forearm injury. Neither played Rome, and neither won any of the tune-up events. When the draw came out and they were on the same side, I wasn’t the only observer who wondered whether they were ready to make it to this semifinal collision.

Now they’re here, safe and sound, and it’s another favorite, Novak Djokovic, who has been forced to withdraw with an injury. In fact, neither Sinner nor Alcaraz were seriously challenged in their first five matches.

Sinner said from the start that his hip felt fine, and he surrendered one set, to Corentin Moutet, before making quick work of him in the next three. By the time he played Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals, Sinner was the master of Chatrier in a way that reminded me of how Rafael Nadal took over that court in the later rounds here. Which was fitting, because that was the same day Sinner learned he would become No. 1 in the world for the first time.

But Alcaraz has been just as good. He’s also dropped one set, and he had little trouble with a potentially tough opponent in Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals. Alcaraz says his arm feels “amazing.” It’s possible that having to be little cautious on his forehand side, because of the injury, has helped his consistency in this tournament.

Now it’s time for the next edition of Alcaraz-Sinner—Sinneraz, for mashup lovers. This will be their first meeting at Roland Garros, and their first in a Grand Slam semifinal. Their head-to-head stands at 4-4. Alcaraz won their most recent match, at Indian Wells this year, in three sets. Sinner won their only encounter on clay, also in three sets.

Alcaraz, like a lot of fans, sounds as if he’s about to come out of his shoes with anticipation.

“I’m really, really excited to play Friday against Jannik again,” Alcaraz said. “A really difficult challenge. I’m ready for that. Hopefully everyone are going to enjoy that match as much as I’m going to.”

Alcaraz seems most excited by how much running he’ll have to do, and how hard it’s going to be.

“You have to run like it’s a marathon, you know, side-to-side,” Alcaraz says of facing Sinner. “I think he [holds] nothing back. Everything he does, he does it perfectly.”

“At the same time I love that. I love this kind of challenge, to have a really difficult battle against him…I love to find solutions, to find a way to beat him the way that I did in Indian Wells. For example, [I lost] 6-1 in the first set, and then I found a way to make him in trouble.”

Sinner is ranked higher, but Alcaraz’s spin-heavy game is better-suited to clay. He has won seven titles on the surface, Sinner just one. (Though, as noted above, Sinner won their only match on clay.) Sinner has a bigger serve and hits more penetrating ground strokes. Alcaraz is faster, and hits with more spin. Both use the drop shot well, but Alcaraz goes to it more often. Alcaraz is also the more natural volleyer, though Sinner has improved at net. Since last fall, Sinner has generally been the better big-match player, and is coming off a major title at the Australian Open.

This will be Sinner’s first Roland Garros semifinal, and Alcaraz’s second. Could that little bit of experience, as well as the surface, give Alcaraz an edge? Or is Sinner so confident on big stages now that it won’t matter? It will be fun to find out. Winner: Alcaraz

Casper Ruud vs. Alexander Zverev

The head-to-head in the first semifinal is 4-4. The head-to-head in the second is 2-2. Zverev won his first two meetings with Ruud, in 2021; Ruud was the last two, in 2022 and 2023.

Of those four matches, the one that will mean the most on Friday will be the most recent. It happened on this court, in this round, one year ago, and the result wasn’t close: Ruud beat Zverev 6-3, 6-4, 6-0. The bagel, in the final set of a major semi, was a stunner. Ruud hit the ball with too much weight, and too consistently, for Zverev to handle.

In fairness to the German, he was still in comeback mode at that point, having missed the second half of 2022 with a ligament tear. Twelve months later, Zverev is clearly in form, physically and mentally. He won the title in Rome three weeks ago. In Paris, he has beaten Rafael Nadal, come back from 1-4 down in the fifth set to beat Tallon Griekspoor, and come back two sets to one down to beat Holger Rune.

Through all of those ups and downs, Zverev has been very steady, mentally and physically. His mix of power serving and baseline grinding has proven impenetrable over the long haul of best-of-five. He’s into his fourth straight semifinal at Roland Garros. Can he get his first win? To do so, he’ll have to beat a guy who has made the last two finals in Paris.

“Great player,” Zverev says of Ruud. “Two finals in a row, third semifinal in a row, that speaks for itself. He’s one of the best players on this surface, for sure. I think I have to play my best tennis to have a chance.”

While Zverev has put in the hours on court, Ruud, who got a walkover from Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals, has been resting for the last four days. Will that help, or will it disrupt his normal rhythm and leave him just a bit rusty? I’d say the latter is more likely.

Ruud has the bigger forehand, and he has been much better at the semifinal stage of Roland Garros than Zverev. But Zverev’s bailout serve, and his calm in the face of adversity so far, makes me think he’ll end up the winner this time. Winner: Zverev